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Today's/Picks

MON · APR 20 · 2026 Week 4 · Regular Season
First Pitch 7:15 PM PDT

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

9 plays · best → worst
  1. 01 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Dodgers ML Moneyline
    CHC Cubs @ LAD Dodgers · 7:15 PM PDT · Jameson Taillon vs Emmet Sheehan
    WIN % 65.4%
    EV +7.3%
    STAKE 2.8u
    -156
  2. 02 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Yankees -1.5 Run Line
    NYY Yankees @ HOU Astros · Mid 3rd · Will Warren vs Lance McCullers Jr.
    WIN % 47.1%
    EV +8.2%
    STAKE 1.6u
    +130
  3. 03 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Rangers -1.5 Run Line
    ATH Athletics @ TEX Rangers · Bot 4th · Luis Severino vs Nathan Eovaldi
    WIN % 46.7%
    EV +7.4%
    STAKE 1.4u
    +130
  4. 04 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Tigers ML Moneyline
    DET Tigers @ CIN Reds · Bot 6th · Framber Valdez vs Andrew Abbott
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —
  5. 05 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Orioles ML Moneyline
    BOS Red Sox @ BAL Orioles · Mid 6th · Brayan Bello vs Brandon Young
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —
  6. 06 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Mets ML Moneyline
    COL Rockies @ NYM Mets · Mid 7th · Michael Lorenzen vs Freddy Peralta
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —
  7. 07 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Twins ML Moneyline
    MIN Twins @ TB Rays · Bot 7th · Taj Bradley vs Drew Rasmussen
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —
  8. 08 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Braves ML Moneyline
    PHI Phillies @ ATL Braves · Bot 6th · Andrew Painter vs Grant Holmes
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —
  9. 09 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Brewers ML Moneyline
    PIT Pirates @ MIL Brewers · Top 6th · Paul Skenes vs Brandon Woodruff
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

Showing 1 of 1
Filter by Sport
Market
Model Confidence
  1. 10 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Giants ML Moneyline
    MIA Marlins @ SF Giants · 7:15 PM PDT · Sandy Alcantara vs Adrian Houser
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    -115

Today's Card

Showing 13 of 13 · 0-0 today
Season Snapshot

By the / Numbers

Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.

Today's Card
31
26 MLB · 5 NBA
Season Record
19-10
65.5% win rate
Lock Pick Win %
73.7%
14-5 on locks
Last 10
5-5
+7.2u last 10
Streak
L4
current run
Confidence Avg
61%
model blend

Leader/board

Top 8 Cappers · Last 30 Days
#
Capper
W-L
Win%
Units
ROI
● Current Streak
W5
5 IN A ROW · +$623 ON L5
Win Loss Push

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model
— 01
Pitching & Matchups
MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.
— 02
Market Read
We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.
— 03
Pace & Environment
MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).
— 04
Fatigue & Availability
MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.