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MON · APR 20 · 2026 Week 4 · Regular Season
First Pitch 9:05 AM PDT

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

9 plays · best → worst
  1. 01 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Braves ML Moneyline
    PHI Phillies @ ATL Braves · 4:15 PM PDT · Zack Wheeler vs Bryce Elder
    WIN % 66.9%
    EV +20.0%
    STAKE 5.0u
    -126
  2. 02 ★★★★★
    @
    MLB Rangers ML Moneyline
    ATH Athletics @ TEX Rangers · 4:05 PM PDT · Jeffrey Springs vs MacKenzie Gore
    WIN % 65.4%
    EV +11.2%
    STAKE 4.0u
    -143
  3. 03 ★★★★★
    @
    MLB Yankees ML Moneyline
    NYY Yankees @ HOU Astros · 4:10 PM PDT · Ryan Weathers vs Mike Burrows
    WIN % 65.1%
    EV +8.8%
    STAKE 3.3u
    -149
  4. 04 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Dodgers ML Moneyline
    CHC Cubs @ LAD Dodgers · 4:15 PM PDT · Colin Rea vs Roki Sasaki
    WIN % 64.5%
    EV +5.8%
    STAKE 2.3u
    -156
  5. 05 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Brewers ML Moneyline
    PIT Pirates @ MIL Brewers · 4:10 PM PDT · Mitch Keller vs Jacob Misiorowski
    WIN % 61.0%
    EV +5.9%
    STAKE 2.0u
    -136
  6. 06 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Giants ML Moneyline
    MIA Marlins @ SF Giants · 1:05 PM PDT · Eury Perez vs Robbie Ray
    WIN % 58.6%
    EV +5.1%
    STAKE 1.6u
    -126
  7. 07 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Angels ML Moneyline
    LAA Angels @ KC Royals · 4:10 PM PDT · Walbert Urena vs Cole Ragans
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    -163
  8. 08 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Tigers ML Moneyline
    DET Tigers @ CIN Reds · 4:15 PM PDT · Jack Flaherty vs Brady Singer
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    -110
  9. 09 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Mets ML Moneyline
    COL Rockies @ NYM Mets · 1:10 PM PDT · Jose Quintana vs Kodai Senga
    WIN % 63.4%
    EV +-6.0%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -207

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

Showing 5 of 5
Filter by Sport
Market
Model Confidence
  1. 10 ★★★☆☆
    @
    NBA Over 213.5 Total
    DET Pistons @ ORL Magic · 10:00 AM PDT · Net +9.6 · Net +3.6
    WIN % 67.0%
    EV +27.9%
    STAKE 5.0u
    -110
  2. 11 ★★★☆☆
    @
    NBA Over 229.5 Total
    DEN Nuggets @ MIN Timberwolves · 5:30 PM PDT · Net +8.2 · Net +1.4
    WIN % 61.2%
    EV +16.9%
    STAKE 4.6u
    -110
  3. 12 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Orioles ML Moneyline
    BOS Red Sox @ BAL Orioles · 9:05 AM PDT · Garrett Crochet vs Trevor Rogers
    WIN % 57.4%
    EV +8.6%
    STAKE 2.4u
    -112
  4. 13 ★★★☆☆
    @
    NBA Nuggets -1.5 Spread
    DEN Nuggets @ MIN Timberwolves · 5:30 PM PDT · Net +8.2 · Net +1.4
    WIN % 53.6%
    EV +2.3%
    STAKE 0.6u
    -110
  5. 14 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Twins ML Moneyline
    MIN Twins @ TB Rays · 1:10 PM PDT · Bailey Ober vs Shane McClanahan
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    -131

Today's Card

Showing 13 of 13 · 0-0 today
Season Snapshot

By the / Numbers

Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.

Today's Card
42
31 MLB · 11 NBA
Season Record
19-10
65.5% win rate
Lock Pick Win %
73.7%
14-5 on locks
Last 10
5-5
+7.2u last 10
Streak
L4
current run
Confidence Avg
52%
model blend

Leader/board

Top 8 Cappers · Last 30 Days
#
Capper
W-L
Win%
Units
ROI
● Current Streak
W5
5 IN A ROW · +$623 ON L5
Win Loss Push

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model
— 01
Pitching & Matchups
MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.
— 02
Market Read
We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.
— 03
Pace & Environment
MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).
— 04
Fatigue & Availability
MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.