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MON · APR 20 · 2026 Week 4 · Regular Season
First Pitch 10:00 AM PDT

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

12 plays · best → worst
  1. 01 ★★★★☆
    @
    NBA Over 206.5 Total
    LAL Lakers @ HOU Rockets · 6:30 PM PDT · Net +2.8 · Net +8.2
    WIN % 66.7%
    EV +27.3%
    STAKE 5.0u
    -110
  2. 02 ★★★★☆
    @
    NBA Over 220.5 Total
    CLE Cavaliers @ TOR Raptors · 10:00 AM PDT · Net +5.4 · Net +3.6
    WIN % 63.0%
    EV +20.2%
    STAKE 5.0u
    -110
  3. 03 ★★★★☆
    @
    NBA Over 213.5 Total
    BOS Celtics @ PHI 76ers · 4:00 PM PDT · Net +10.0 · Net +0.8
    WIN % 62.0%
    EV +18.3%
    STAKE 5.0u
    -110
  4. 04 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Braves -1.5 Run Line
    PHI Phillies @ ATL Braves · 10:35 AM PDT · Aaron Nola vs Chris Sale
    WIN % 52.2%
    EV +20.2%
    STAKE 3.9u
    +130
  5. 05 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Orioles ML Moneyline
    BOS Red Sox @ BAL Orioles · 10:35 AM PDT · Connelly Early vs Kyle Bradish
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —
  6. 06 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Mets ML Moneyline
    COL Rockies @ NYM Mets · 10:40 AM PDT · TBD vs Nolan McLean
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —
  7. 07 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Rays ML Moneyline
    MIN Twins @ TB Rays · 10:40 AM PDT · Simeon Woods Richardson vs Jesse Scholtens
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —
  8. 08 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Yankees ML Moneyline
    NYY Yankees @ HOU Astros · 11:10 AM PDT · Luis Gil vs Spencer Arrighetti
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —
  9. 09 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Rangers ML Moneyline
    ATH Athletics @ TEX Rangers · 11:35 AM PDT · J.T. Ginn vs Kumar Rocker
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —
  10. 10 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Giants ML Moneyline
    MIA Marlins @ SF Giants · 1:05 PM PDT · Max Meyer vs Landen Roupp
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —
  11. 11 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Padres ML Moneyline
    SD Padres @ ARI Diamondbacks · 1:05 PM PDT · Michael King vs Ryne Nelson
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —
  12. 12 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Dodgers ML Moneyline
    CHC Cubs @ LAD Dodgers · 1:10 PM PDT · Shota Imanaga vs Justin Wrobleski
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

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Today's Card

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Season Snapshot

By the / Numbers

Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.

Today's Card
40
31 MLB · 9 NBA
Season Record
27-19
58.7% win rate
Lock Pick Win %
58.1%
18-13 on locks
Last 10
5-5
last 10 graded
Streak
W3
hot card
Confidence Avg
60%
model blend

Leader/board

Top 8 Cappers · Last 30 Days
#
Capper
W-L
Win%
Units
ROI
● Current Streak
W5
5 IN A ROW · +$623 ON L5
Win Loss Push

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model
— 01
Pitching & Matchups
MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.
— 02
Market Read
We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.
— 03
Pace & Environment
MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).
— 04
Fatigue & Availability
MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.