Bookie Bullies
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Today's Card · Locked In

Today's/Picks

MON · APR 20 · 2026 Week 4 · Regular Season
First Pitch 3:10 PM PDT

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

4 plays · best → worst
  1. 01 ★★★★☆
    @
    NBA Over 221.5 Total
    MIN Timberwolves @ DEN Nuggets · 7:30 PM PDT · Net +1.4 · Net +8.2
    WIN % 66.2%
    EV +26.3%
    STAKE 5.0u
    -110
  2. 02 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Dodgers ML Moneyline
    MIA Marlins @ LAD Dodgers · 7:10 PM PDT · Chris Paddack vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto
    WIN % 83.1%
    EV +9.6%
    STAKE 5.0u
    -314
  3. 03 ★★★★★
    @
    MLB Yankees ML Moneyline
    NYY Yankees @ TEX Rangers · 5:05 PM PDT · Max Fried vs Jack Leiter
    WIN % 68.4%
    EV +5.2%
    STAKE 2.4u
    -186
  4. 04 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Angels ML Moneyline
    LAA Angels @ CHW White Sox · 4:40 PM PDT · Jack Kochanowicz vs Anthony Kay
    WIN % 59.7%
    EV +9.4%
    STAKE 2.8u
    -120

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

Showing 3 of 3
Filter by Sport
Market
Model Confidence
  1. 05 ★★★☆☆
    @
    NBA Over 214.5 Total
    DET Pistons @ ORL Magic · 5:00 PM PDT · Net +9.6 · Net +3.6
    WIN % 66.6%
    EV +27.2%
    STAKE 5.0u
    -110
  2. 06 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Pirates ML Moneyline
    STL Cardinals @ PIT Pirates · 3:40 PM PDT · Dustin May vs Mason Montgomery
    WIN % 57.0%
    EV +0.5%
    STAKE 0.2u
    -131
  3. 07 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Padres ML Moneyline
    CHC Cubs @ SD Padres · 6:40 PM PDT · Matthew Boyd vs Randy Vasquez
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    -115

Today's Card

Showing 13 of 13 · 0-0 today
Season Snapshot

By the / Numbers

Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.

Today's Card
25
17 MLB · 8 NBA
Season Record
49-35
58.3% win rate
Lock Pick Win %
52.8%
28-25 on locks
Last 10
9-1
last 10 graded
Streak
W1
current run
Confidence Avg
53%
model blend

Leader/board

Top 8 Cappers · Last 30 Days
#
Capper
W-L
Win%
Units
ROI
● Current Streak
W5
5 IN A ROW · +$623 ON L5
Win Loss Push

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model
— 01
Pitching & Matchups
MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.
— 02
Market Read
We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.
— 03
Pace & Environment
MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).
— 04
Fatigue & Availability
MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.