Bookie Bullies
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Upcoming/Picks

MON · APR 20 · 2026 Week 4 · Regular Season
First Pitch 3:10 PM PDT

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

10 plays · best → worst
  1. 01 ★★★★★
    @
    NBA Over 215.5 Total
    PHI 76ers @ BOS Celtics · 4:00 PM PDT · Net +0.8 · Net +10.0
    WIN % 60.4%
    EV +15.3%
    STAKE 4.2u
    -110
  2. 02 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Braves -1.5 Run Line
    DET Tigers @ ATL Braves · 4:15 PM PDT · Casey Mize vs Martin Perez
    WIN % 47.4%
    EV +8.9%
    STAKE 1.7u
    +130
  3. 03 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Rays ML Moneyline
    TB Rays @ CLE Guardians · 3:10 PM PDT · Nick Martinez vs Tanner Bibee
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —
  4. 04 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Giants ML Moneyline
    SF Giants @ PHI Phillies · 3:40 PM PDT · Tyler Mahle vs Jesus Luzardo
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —
  5. 05 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Mets ML Moneyline
    WSH Nationals @ NYM Mets · 4:10 PM PDT · Zack Littell vs Clay Holmes
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —
  6. 06 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Angels ML Moneyline
    LAA Angels @ CHW White Sox · 4:40 PM PDT · Jose Soriano vs Davis Martin
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —
  7. 07 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Brewers ML Moneyline
    ARI Diamondbacks @ MIL Brewers · 4:40 PM PDT · Merrill Kelly vs Chad Patrick
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —
  8. 08 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Yankees ML Moneyline
    NYY Yankees @ TEX Rangers · 5:05 PM PDT · Cam Schlittler vs Jacob deGrom
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —
  9. 09 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Cubs ML Moneyline
    CHC Cubs @ SD Padres · 6:40 PM PDT · Edward Cabrera vs Walker Buehler
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —
  10. 10 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Dodgers ML Moneyline
    MIA Marlins @ LAD Dodgers · 7:10 PM PDT · Janson Junk vs Shohei Ohtani
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

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Today's Card

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Season Snapshot

By the / Numbers

Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.

Today's Card
37
29 MLB · 8 NBA
Season Record
49-35
58.3% win rate
Lock Pick Win %
52.8%
28-25 on locks
Last 10
9-1
last 10 graded
Streak
W1
current run
Confidence Avg
53%
model blend

Leader/board

Top 8 Cappers · Last 30 Days
#
Capper
W-L
Win%
Units
ROI
● Current Streak
W5
5 IN A ROW · +$623 ON L5
Win Loss Push

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model
— 01
Pitching & Matchups
MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.
— 02
Market Read
We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.
— 03
Pace & Environment
MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).
— 04
Fatigue & Availability
MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.