Bookie Bullies
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MON · APR 20 · 2026 Week 4 · Regular Season
First Pitch 10:10 AM PDT

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

8 plays · best → worst
  1. 01 ★★★★★
    @
    NBA Over 209.5 Total
    ORL Magic @ DET Pistons · 4:00 PM PDT · Net +3.6 · Net +9.6
    WIN % 68.2%
    EV +30.3%
    STAKE 5.0u
    -110
  2. 02 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Dodgers -1.5 Run Line
    MIA Marlins @ LAD Dodgers · 12:10 PM PDT · Sandy Alcantara vs Tyler Glasnow
    WIN % 56.1%
    EV +29.0%
    STAKE 5.0u
    +130
  3. 03 ★★★★☆
    @
    NBA Over 215.5 Total
    TOR Raptors @ CLE Cavaliers · 4:30 PM PDT · Net +3.6 · Net +5.4
    WIN % 65.9%
    EV +25.8%
    STAKE 5.0u
    -110
  4. 04 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Braves -1.5 Run Line
    DET Tigers @ ATL Braves · 4:15 PM PDT · Tarik Skubal vs JR Ritchie
    WIN % 49.2%
    EV +13.2%
    STAKE 2.5u
    +130
  5. 05 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Yankees -1.5 Run Line
    NYY Yankees @ TEX Rangers · 11:35 AM PDT · Will Warren vs Nathan Eovaldi
    WIN % 46.8%
    EV +7.6%
    STAKE 1.5u
    +130
  6. 06 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Rockies ML Moneyline
    COL Rockies @ CIN Reds · 3:40 PM PDT · Tomoyuki Sugano vs Brandon Williamson
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —
  7. 07 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Phillies ML Moneyline
    SF Giants @ PHI Phillies · 3:40 PM PDT · Logan Webb vs Cristopher Sanchez
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —
  8. 08 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Brewers ML Moneyline
    ARI Diamondbacks @ MIL Brewers · 4:40 PM PDT · Eduardo Rodriguez vs Brandon Sproat
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

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Today's Card

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Season Snapshot

By the / Numbers

Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.

Today's Card
39
32 MLB · 7 NBA
Season Record
55-40
57.9% win rate
Lock Pick Win %
54.2%
32-27 on locks
Last 10
5-5
last 10 graded
Streak
W1
current run
Confidence Avg
57%
model blend

Leader/board

Top 8 Cappers · Last 30 Days
#
Capper
W-L
Win%
Units
ROI
● Current Streak
W5
5 IN A ROW · +$623 ON L5
Win Loss Push

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model
— 01
Pitching & Matchups
MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.
— 02
Market Read
We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.
— 03
Pace & Environment
MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).
— 04
Fatigue & Availability
MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.