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MON · APR 20 · 2026 Week 4 · Regular Season
First Pitch 9:15 AM PDT

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

0 plays · best → worst
No 5★ +EV locks on today's board. Check back at 8am for the morning refresh.

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

Showing 22 of 22
Filter by Sport
Market
Model Confidence
  1. 01 ★★★☆☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Athletics F5 First 5 Innings
    KC Royals @ ATH Athletics · 12:05 PM PDT · Noah Cameron vs Jeffrey Springs
    WIN % 67.8%
    EV +24.3%
    STAKE 3.6u
    -120
  2. 02 ★★★☆☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Astros F5 First 5 Innings
    HOU Astros @ BAL Orioles · 9:35 AM PDT · Peter Lambert vs Chris Bassitt
    WIN % 66.0%
    EV +21.1%
    STAKE 3.2u
    -120
  3. 03 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Pirates F5 First 5 Innings
    STL Cardinals @ PIT Pirates · 9:35 AM PDT · Hunter Dobbins vs Paul Skenes
    WIN % 65.2%
    EV +19.6%
    STAKE 2.9u
    -120
  4. 04 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Braves ML Moneyline
    DET Tigers @ ATL Braves · 9:15 AM PDT · Framber Valdez vs Bryce Elder
    WIN % 58.9%
    EV +7.2%
    STAKE 1.1u
    -122
  5. 05 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Braves F5 First 5 Innings
    DET Tigers @ ATL Braves · 9:15 AM PDT · Framber Valdez vs Bryce Elder
    WIN % 58.1%
    EV +6.5%
    STAKE 1.0u
    -120
  6. 06 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Mets F5 First 5 Innings
    WSH Nationals @ NYM Mets · 10:10 AM PDT · Miles Mikolas vs Freddy Peralta
    WIN % 57.7%
    EV +5.7%
    STAKE 0.9u
    -120
  7. 07 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Phillies F5 First 5 Innings
    SF Giants @ PHI Phillies · 9:35 AM PDT · Logan Webb vs Cristopher Sanchez
    WIN % 57.2%
    EV +4.9%
    STAKE 0.7u
    -120
  8. 08 ★★★☆☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Orioles F5 First 5 Innings
    HOU Astros @ BAL Orioles · 1:05 PM PDT · Lance McCullers Jr. vs Brandon Young
    WIN % 57.4%
    EV +5.3%
    STAKE 0.8u
    -120
  9. 09 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Mets -1.5 Run Line
    WSH Nationals @ NYM Mets · 10:10 AM PDT · Miles Mikolas vs Freddy Peralta
    WIN % 43.9%
    EV +0.9%
    STAKE 0.1u
    +130
  10. 10 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Astros ML Moneyline
    HOU Astros @ BAL Orioles · 9:35 AM PDT · Peter Lambert vs Chris Bassitt
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    -122
  11. 11 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Royals ML Moneyline
    KC Royals @ ATH Athletics · 12:05 PM PDT · Noah Cameron vs Jeffrey Springs
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    -126
  12. 12 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Phillies ML Moneyline
    SF Giants @ PHI Phillies · 9:35 AM PDT · Logan Webb vs Cristopher Sanchez
    WIN % 59.2%
    EV +-1.0%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -149
  13. 13 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Over 7.5 Total
    WSH Nationals @ NYM Mets · 10:10 AM PDT · Miles Mikolas vs Freddy Peralta
    WIN % 51.5%
    EV +-1.7%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110
  14. 14 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Phillies +1.5 Run Line
    SF Giants @ PHI Phillies · 2:35 PM PDT · TBD vs TBD
    WIN % 62.8%
    EV +-2.3%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180
  15. 15 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Pirates ML Moneyline
    STL Cardinals @ PIT Pirates · 9:35 AM PDT · Hunter Dobbins vs Paul Skenes
    WIN % 66.7%
    EV +-3.8%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -226
  16. 16 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Mets ML Moneyline
    WSH Nationals @ NYM Mets · 10:10 AM PDT · Miles Mikolas vs Freddy Peralta
    WIN % 65.8%
    EV +-4.1%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -219
  17. 17 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Blue Jays ML Moneyline
    TOR Blue Jays @ MIN Twins · 4:40 PM PDT · Kevin Gausman vs Bailey Ober
    WIN % 54.9%
    EV +-4.7%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -136
  18. 18 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Over 7.5 Total
    TOR Blue Jays @ MIN Twins · 4:40 PM PDT · Kevin Gausman vs Bailey Ober
    WIN % 49.8%
    EV +-4.9%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110
  19. 19 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Twins +1.5 Run Line
    TOR Blue Jays @ MIN Twins · 4:40 PM PDT · Kevin Gausman vs Bailey Ober
    WIN % 60.6%
    EV +-5.7%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180
  20. 20 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Over 6.5 Total
    SF Giants @ PHI Phillies · 9:35 AM PDT · Logan Webb vs Cristopher Sanchez
    WIN % 49.2%
    EV +-6.0%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110
  21. 21 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Under 8.5 Total
    STL Cardinals @ PIT Pirates · 9:35 AM PDT · Hunter Dobbins vs Paul Skenes
    WIN % 47.6%
    EV +-9.1%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110
  22. 22 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Under 9.5 Total
    DET Tigers @ ATL Braves · 9:15 AM PDT · Framber Valdez vs Bryce Elder
    WIN % 47.2%
    EV +-9.8%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110

Today's Card

Showing 13 of 13 · 0-0 today
Season Snapshot

By the / Numbers

Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.

Today's Card
41
37 MLB · 4 NBA
Season Record
63-48-1
56.8% win rate since 2026-04-22
Lock Pick Win %
12-4
75.0% on locks (16 graded)
Last 10
4-6
-0.9u last 10
Streak
L2
current run
Confidence Avg
55%
model blend

Leader/board

Top 8 Cappers · Last 30 Days
#
Capper
W-L
Win%
Units
ROI
● Current Streak
W5
5 IN A ROW · +$623 ON L5
Win Loss Push

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model
— 01
Pitching & Matchups
MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.
— 02
Market Read
We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.
— 03
Pace & Environment
MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).
— 04
Fatigue & Availability
MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.