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MON · APR 20 · 2026 Week 4 · Regular Season
First Pitch 11:20 AM PDT

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

5 plays · best → worst
  1. 01 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB F5 Over 5.5 F5 Total
    ATL Braves @ COL Rockies · 5:40 PM PDT · Grant Holmes vs Jose Quintana
    WIN % 60.9%
    EV +16.2%
    STAKE 2.2u
    -110
  2. 02 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Dodgers F5 First 5 Innings
    LAD Dodgers @ STL Cardinals · 5:15 PM PDT · Emmet Sheehan vs Matthew Liberatore
    WIN % 62.2%
    EV +14.0%
    STAKE 2.1u
    -120
  3. 03 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Yankees F5 First 5 Innings
    BAL Orioles @ NYY Yankees · 4:05 PM PDT · TBD vs Will Warren
    WIN % 61.2%
    EV +12.1%
    STAKE 1.8u
    -120
  4. 04 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB White Sox F5 First 5 Innings
    CHW White Sox @ SD Padres · 6:40 PM PDT · Noah Schultz vs German Marquez
    WIN % 58.9%
    EV +8.0%
    STAKE 1.2u
    -120
  5. 05 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Brewers F5 First 5 Innings
    MIL Brewers @ WSH Nationals · 3:45 PM PDT · Jacob Misiorowski vs Jake Irvin
    WIN % 56.4%
    EV +3.5%
    STAKE 0.5u
    -120

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

Showing 13 of 13
Filter by Sport
Market
Model Confidence
  1. 06 ★★★☆☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Angels F5 First 5 Innings
    NYM Mets @ LAA Angels · 6:38 PM PDT · Christian Scott vs Walbert Urena
    WIN % 67.9%
    EV +24.5%
    STAKE 3.7u
    -120
  2. 07 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Mariners F5 First 5 Innings
    KC Royals @ SEA Mariners · 6:45 PM PDT · Cole Ragans vs Bryan Woo
    WIN % 59.6%
    EV +9.2%
    STAKE 1.4u
    -120
  3. 08 ★★★☆☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Pirates F5 First 5 Innings
    CIN Reds @ PIT Pirates · 3:40 PM PDT · Brady Singer vs Mitch Keller
    WIN % 59.0%
    EV +8.1%
    STAKE 1.2u
    -120
  4. 09 ★★★☆☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Twins F5 First 5 Innings
    TOR Blue Jays @ MIN Twins · 5:10 PM PDT · Patrick Corbin vs Simeon Woods Richardson
    WIN % 58.0%
    EV +6.3%
    STAKE 0.9u
    -120
  5. 10 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Cubs F5 First 5 Innings
    ARI Diamondbacks @ CHC Cubs · 11:20 AM PDT · Zac Gallen vs Colin Rea
    WIN % 57.1%
    EV +4.7%
    STAKE 0.7u
    -120
  6. 11 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Athletics F5 First 5 Innings
    CLE Guardians @ ATH Athletics · 6:40 PM PDT · Joey Cantillo vs J.T. Ginn
    WIN % 55.4%
    EV +1.5%
    STAKE 0.2u
    -120
  7. 12 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Rays F5 First 5 Innings
    SF Giants @ TB Rays · 4:10 PM PDT · Robbie Ray vs Shane McClanahan
    WIN % 54.9%
    EV +0.6%
    STAKE 0.1u
    -120
  8. 13 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Cubs -1.5 Run Line
    ARI Diamondbacks @ CHC Cubs · 11:20 AM PDT · Zac Gallen vs Colin Rea
    WIN % 43.8%
    EV +0.7%
    STAKE 0.1u
    +130
  9. 14 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Giants +1.5 Run Line
    SF Giants @ TB Rays · 4:10 PM PDT · Robbie Ray vs Shane McClanahan
    WIN % 62.7%
    EV +-2.5%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180
  10. 15 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Marlins +1.5 Run Line
    PHI Phillies @ MIA Marlins · 4:10 PM PDT · Andrew Painter vs Eury Perez
    WIN % 62.5%
    EV +-2.8%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180
  11. 16 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Royals +1.5 Run Line
    KC Royals @ SEA Mariners · 6:45 PM PDT · Cole Ragans vs Bryan Woo
    WIN % 61.9%
    EV +-3.7%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180
  12. 17 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Over 9.5 Total
    ARI Diamondbacks @ CHC Cubs · 11:20 AM PDT · Zac Gallen vs Colin Rea
    WIN % 50.0%
    EV +-4.5%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110
  13. 18 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Athletics +1.5 Run Line
    CLE Guardians @ ATH Athletics · 6:40 PM PDT · Joey Cantillo vs J.T. Ginn
    WIN % 60.7%
    EV +-5.6%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180

Today's Card

Showing 13 of 13 · 0-0 today
Season Snapshot

By the / Numbers

Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.

Today's Card
63
60 MLB · 3 NBA
Season Record
69-58-3
54.3% win rate since 2026-04-22
Lock Pick Win %
14-6
70.0% on locks (20 graded)
Last 10
4-6
-0.9u last 10
Streak
L2
current run
Confidence Avg
68%
model blend

Leader/board

Top 8 Cappers · Last 30 Days
#
Capper
W-L
Win%
Units
ROI
● Current Streak
W5
5 IN A ROW · +$623 ON L5
Win Loss Push

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model
— 01
Pitching & Matchups
MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.
— 02
Market Read
We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.
— 03
Pace & Environment
MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).
— 04
Fatigue & Availability
MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.