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MON · APR 20 · 2026 Week 4 · Regular Season
First Pitch 10:35 AM PDT

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

5 plays · best → worst
  1. 01 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB F5 Over 5.5 F5 Total
    LAD Dodgers @ STL Cardinals · 4:15 PM PDT · Roki Sasaki vs Michael McGreevy
    WHY
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.81 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.96 R
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.43 R
    WIN % 62.3%
    EV +18.9%
    STAKE 2.6u
    -110
  2. 02 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Braves F5 First 5 Innings
    ATL Braves @ COL Rockies · 5:10 PM PDT · Chris Sale vs TBD
    WHY
    • FIP edge +2.20 — your starter projects better
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.64 R
    • Catcher framing +0.28 R
    WIN % 62.8%
    EV +15.1%
    STAKE 2.3u
    -120
  3. 03 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Yankees ML Moneyline
    BAL Orioles @ NYY Yankees · 10:35 AM PDT · Kyle Bradish vs Ryan Weathers
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.23 — your starter projects better
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.33 R
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.19 R
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —
  4. 04 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Brewers ML Moneyline
    MIL Brewers @ WSH Nationals · 1:05 PM PDT · Kyle Harrison vs Foster Griffin
    WHY
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.43 R
    • FIP edge +0.81 — your starter projects better
    • Catcher framing +0.55 R
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —
  5. 05 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Padres ML Moneyline
    CHW White Sox @ SD Padres · 5:40 PM PDT · Sean Burke vs Michael King
    WHY
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.58 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.96 R
    • Catcher framing +0.23 R
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

Showing 13 of 13
Filter by Sport
Market
Model Confidence
  1. 06 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB F5 Under 3.5 F5 Total
    NYM Mets @ LAA Angels · 6:38 PM PDT · Nolan McLean vs Reid Detmers
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.20 — your starter projects better
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.80 R
    • Catcher framing +0.29 R
    WIN % 62.1%
    EV +18.5%
    STAKE 2.5u
    -110
  2. 07 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Cubs F5 First 5 Innings
    ARI Diamondbacks @ CHC Cubs · 11:20 AM PDT · Ryne Nelson vs Shota Imanaga
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.32 — your starter projects better
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.41 R
    • Recent form 7-3 (last 10)
    WIN % 63.6%
    EV +16.5%
    STAKE 2.5u
    -120
  3. 08 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Cubs -1.5 Run Line
    ARI Diamondbacks @ CHC Cubs · 11:20 AM PDT · Ryne Nelson vs Shota Imanaga
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.32 — your starter projects better
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.41 R
    • Recent form 7-3 (last 10)
    WIN % 48.1%
    EV +10.7%
    STAKE 1.0u
    +130
  4. 09 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Marlins F5 First 5 Innings
    PHI Phillies @ MIA Marlins · 1:10 PM PDT · Aaron Nola vs Max Meyer
    WHY
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.59 R
    WIN % 56.6%
    EV +3.8%
    STAKE 0.6u
    -120
  5. 10 ★★★★☆
    @
    NBA Celtics -8.5 Spread
    PHI 76ers @ BOS Celtics · 4:30 PM PDT · Net +0.8 · Net +10.0
    WHY
    • Net rating edge +9.2
    • Recent form 8-2 (last 10)
    WIN % 53.2%
    EV +1.5%
    STAKE 0.2u
    -110
  6. 11 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Giants F5 First 5 Innings
    SF Giants @ TB Rays · 3:10 PM PDT · Landen Roupp vs Jesse Scholtens
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.35 — your starter projects better
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.55 R
    • Defense (OAA) +0.20 R
    WIN % 54.9%
    EV +0.6%
    STAKE 0.1u
    -120
  7. 12 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Astros F5 First 5 Innings
    HOU Astros @ BOS Red Sox · 1:10 PM PDT · Spencer Arrighetti vs Connelly Early
    WHY
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.88 R
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.35 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.40 R
    WIN % 55.1%
    EV +1.0%
    STAKE 0.1u
    -120
  8. 13 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB F5 Over 5.5 F5 Total
    HOU Astros @ BOS Red Sox · 1:10 PM PDT · Spencer Arrighetti vs Connelly Early
    WHY
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.88 R
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.35 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.40 R
    WIN % 52.1%
    EV +-0.6%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110
  9. 14 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Phillies +1.5 Run Line
    PHI Phillies @ MIA Marlins · 1:10 PM PDT · Aaron Nola vs Max Meyer
    WHY
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +1.12 R
    • Catcher framing +0.55 R
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.17 R
    WIN % 63.9%
    EV +-0.6%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180
  10. 15 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Angels +1.5 Run Line
    NYM Mets @ LAA Angels · 6:38 PM PDT · Nolan McLean vs Reid Detmers
    WHY
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.97 R
    WIN % 63.4%
    EV +-1.4%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180
  11. 16 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Giants +1.5 Run Line
    SF Giants @ TB Rays · 3:10 PM PDT · Landen Roupp vs Jesse Scholtens
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.35 — your starter projects better
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.55 R
    • Defense (OAA) +0.20 R
    WIN % 62.2%
    EV +-3.3%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180
  12. 17 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Over 6.5 Total
    PHI Phillies @ MIA Marlins · 1:10 PM PDT · Aaron Nola vs Max Meyer
    WHY
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.59 R
    WIN % 50.0%
    EV +-4.5%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110
  13. 18 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Over 6.5 Total
    KC Royals @ SEA Mariners · 6:40 PM PDT · Seth Lugo vs Emerson Hancock
    WHY
    • FIP edge +0.45 — your starter projects better
    • Catcher framing +0.35 R
    WIN % 50.0%
    EV +-4.5%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110

Today's Card

Showing 13 of 13 · 0-0 today
Season Snapshot

By the / Numbers

Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.

Today's Card
62
60 MLB · 2 NBA
Season Record
72-69-3
51.1% win rate since 2026-04-22
Lock Pick Win %
14-6
70.0% on locks (20 graded)
Last 10
3-7
last 10 graded
Streak
L1
current run
Confidence Avg
63%
model blend

Leader/board

Top 8 Cappers · Last 30 Days
#
Capper
W-L
Win%
Units
ROI
● Current Streak
W5
5 IN A ROW · +$623 ON L5
Win Loss Push

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model
— 01
Pitching & Matchups
MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.
— 02
Market Read
We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.
— 03
Pace & Environment
MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).
— 04
Fatigue & Availability
MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.