Bookie Bullies
Bookie BulliesMLB + NBA · Daily Picks
Heads-up Picks made by MarcDuck with AI assistance, weighing up to 35 factors per game. Predictions are not 100% correct. This is NOT financial advice. 21+ entertainment only. Full disclaimer.
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By MarcDuck · Curated with AI assistance, the human formulates every pick
MON · APR 20 · 2026 Week 4 · Regular Season
First Pitch 9:35 AM PDT

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

4 plays · best → worst
  1. 01 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Yankees F5 First 5 Innings
    BAL Orioles @ NYY Yankees · 10:35 AM PDT · TBD vs Max Fried
    WHY
    • FIP edge +2.98 — your starter projects better
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.33 R
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.19 R
    WIN % 65.4%
    EV +20.0%
    STAKE 3.0u
    -120
  2. 02 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Padres F5 First 5 Innings
    CHW White Sox @ SD Padres · 1:10 PM PDT · Anthony Kay vs Randy Vasquez
    WHY
    • FIP edge +2.40 — your starter projects better
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +1.28 R
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.58 R
    WIN % 64.7%
    EV +18.6%
    STAKE 2.8u
    -120
  3. 03 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Rockies F5 First 5 Innings
    ATL Braves @ COL Rockies · 12:10 PM PDT · Spencer Strider vs Kyle Freeland
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.72 — your starter projects better
    WIN % 57.4%
    EV +5.2%
    STAKE 0.8u
    -120
  4. 04 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Dodgers F5 First 5 Innings
    LAD Dodgers @ STL Cardinals · 11:15 AM PDT · Justin Wrobleski vs Dustin May
    WHY
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.81 R
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.43 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.72 R
    WIN % 55.8%
    EV +2.3%
    STAKE 0.3u
    -120

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

Showing 20 of 20
Filter by Sport
Market
Model Confidence
  1. 05 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB F5 Over 5.5 F5 Total
    ARI Diamondbacks @ CHC Cubs · 11:20 AM PDT · Merrill Kelly vs Matthew Boyd
    WHY
    • FIP edge +4.06 — your starter projects better
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.41 R
    • Recent form 7-3 (last 10)
    WIN % 69.2%
    EV +32.1%
    STAKE 4.4u
    -110
  2. 06 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Cubs F5 First 5 Innings
    ARI Diamondbacks @ CHC Cubs · 11:20 AM PDT · Merrill Kelly vs Matthew Boyd
    WHY
    • FIP edge +4.06 — your starter projects better
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.41 R
    • Recent form 7-3 (last 10)
    WIN % 69.2%
    EV +26.9%
    STAKE 4.0u
    -120
  3. 07 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Brewers F5 First 5 Innings
    MIL Brewers @ WSH Nationals · 10:35 AM PDT · Chad Patrick vs Zack Littell
    WHY
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.43 R
    • Catcher framing +0.55 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.32 R
    WIN % 65.6%
    EV +20.2%
    STAKE 3.0u
    -120
  4. 08 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Brewers -1.5 Run Line
    MIL Brewers @ WSH Nationals · 10:35 AM PDT · Chad Patrick vs Zack Littell
    WHY
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.43 R
    • Catcher framing +0.55 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.32 R
    WIN % 53.1%
    EV +22.2%
    STAKE 2.1u
    +130
  5. 09 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Cubs -1.5 Run Line
    ARI Diamondbacks @ CHC Cubs · 11:20 AM PDT · Merrill Kelly vs Matthew Boyd
    WHY
    • FIP edge +4.06 — your starter projects better
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.41 R
    • Recent form 7-3 (last 10)
    WIN % 49.1%
    EV +12.9%
    STAKE 1.2u
    +130
  6. 10 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Rays F5 First 5 Innings
    SF Giants @ TB Rays · 10:40 AM PDT · Tyler Mahle vs Steven Matz
    WHY
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.50 R
    • Recent form 7-3 (last 10)
    WIN % 58.4%
    EV +7.1%
    STAKE 1.1u
    -120
  7. 11 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Guardians F5 First 5 Innings
    CLE Guardians @ ATH Athletics · 1:05 PM PDT · Parker Messick vs Aaron Civale
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.53 — your starter projects better
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.52 R
    • Catcher framing +0.28 R
    WIN % 56.9%
    EV +4.3%
    STAKE 0.6u
    -120
  8. 12 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Marlins F5 First 5 Innings
    PHI Phillies @ MIA Marlins · 10:40 AM PDT · Jesus Luzardo vs Chris Paddack
    WHY
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.59 R
    WIN % 56.3%
    EV +3.2%
    STAKE 0.5u
    -120
  9. 13 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB F5 Over 5.5 F5 Total
    MIL Brewers @ WSH Nationals · 10:35 AM PDT · Chad Patrick vs Zack Littell
    WHY
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.43 R
    • Catcher framing +0.55 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.32 R
    WIN % 53.5%
    EV +2.1%
    STAKE 0.3u
    -110
  10. 14 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Red Sox F5 First 5 Innings
    HOU Astros @ BOS Red Sox · 10:35 AM PDT · TBD vs Ranger Suarez
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.68 — your starter projects better
    • Defense (OAA) +0.22 R
    WIN % 55.8%
    EV +2.4%
    STAKE 0.4u
    -120
  11. 15 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Royals F5 First 5 Innings
    KC Royals @ SEA Mariners · 1:10 PM PDT · Kris Bubic vs Luis Castillo
    WHY
    • Defense (OAA) +0.44 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.24 R
    WIN % 55.3%
    EV +1.3%
    STAKE 0.2u
    -120
  12. 16 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Angels F5 First 5 Innings
    NYM Mets @ LAA Angels · 1:07 PM PDT · Clay Holmes vs Jack Kochanowicz
    WHY
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.97 R
    WIN % 55.0%
    EV +0.9%
    STAKE 0.1u
    -120
  13. 17 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Angels +1.5 Run Line
    NYM Mets @ LAA Angels · 1:07 PM PDT · Clay Holmes vs Jack Kochanowicz
    WHY
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.97 R
    WIN % 63.8%
    EV +-0.8%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180
  14. 18 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Marlins +1.5 Run Line
    PHI Phillies @ MIA Marlins · 10:40 AM PDT · Jesus Luzardo vs Chris Paddack
    WHY
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.59 R
    WIN % 63.4%
    EV +-1.4%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180
  15. 19 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Over 10.5 Total
    MIL Brewers @ WSH Nationals · 10:35 AM PDT · Chad Patrick vs Zack Littell
    WHY
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.43 R
    • Catcher framing +0.55 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.32 R
    WIN % 50.0%
    EV +-4.5%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110
  16. 20 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Under 6.5 Total
    PHI Phillies @ MIA Marlins · 10:40 AM PDT · Jesus Luzardo vs Chris Paddack
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.34 — your starter projects better
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +1.00 R
    • Catcher framing +0.55 R
    WIN % 50.0%
    EV +-4.5%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110
  17. 21 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Under 7.5 Total
    CLE Guardians @ ATH Athletics · 1:05 PM PDT · Parker Messick vs Aaron Civale
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.53 — your starter projects better
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.52 R
    • Catcher framing +0.28 R
    WIN % 50.0%
    EV +-4.5%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110
  18. 22 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Under 7.5 Total
    KC Royals @ SEA Mariners · 1:10 PM PDT · Kris Bubic vs Luis Castillo
    WHY
    • Park factor 0.91 — pitcher-friendly
    • Catcher framing +0.35 R
    WIN % 50.0%
    EV +-4.5%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110
  19. 23 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Royals +1.5 Run Line
    KC Royals @ SEA Mariners · 1:10 PM PDT · Kris Bubic vs Luis Castillo
    WHY
    • Defense (OAA) +0.44 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.24 R
    WIN % 61.1%
    EV +-4.9%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180
  20. 24 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Giants +1.5 Run Line
    SF Giants @ TB Rays · 10:40 AM PDT · Tyler Mahle vs Steven Matz
    WHY
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.55 R
    • Defense (OAA) +0.20 R
    WIN % 60.8%
    EV +-5.4%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180

Today's Card

Showing 13 of 13 · 0-0 today
Season Snapshot

By the / Numbers

Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.

Today's Card
64
62 MLB · 2 NBA
Season Record
83-76-3
52.2% win rate since 2026-04-22
Lock Pick Win %
17-8
68.0% on locks (25 graded)
Last 10
5-5
last 10 graded
Streak
L1
current run
Confidence Avg
68%
model blend

Leader/board

Top 8 Cappers · Last 30 Days
#
Capper
W-L
Win%
Units
ROI
● Current Streak
W5
5 IN A ROW · +$623 ON L5
Win Loss Push

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model
— 01
Pitching & Matchups
MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.
— 02
Market Read
We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.
— 03
Pace & Environment
MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).
— 04
Fatigue & Availability
MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.