Bookie Bullies
Bookie BulliesMLB + NBA · Daily Picks
Heads-up Picks made by MarcDuck with AI assistance, weighing up to 35 factors per game. Predictions are not 100% correct. This is NOT financial advice. 21+ entertainment only. Full disclaimer.
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By MarcDuck · Curated with AI assistance, the human formulates every pick
MON · APR 20 · 2026 Week 4 · Regular Season
First Pitch 3:40 PM PDT

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

2 plays · best → worst
  1. 01 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Yankees F5 First 5 Innings
    BAL Orioles @ NYY Yankees · 4:05 PM PDT · Shane Baz vs Cam Schlittler
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.76 — your starter projects better
    • Recent form 8-2 (last 10)
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.33 R
    WIN % 61.2%
    EV +12.3%
    STAKE 1.8u
    -120
  2. 02 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Braves ML Moneyline
    ATL Braves @ SEA Mariners · 6:40 PM PDT · JR Ritchie vs Logan Gilbert
    WHY
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.65 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.76 R
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.30 R
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

Showing 20 of 20
Filter by Sport
Market
Model Confidence
  1. 03 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Cubs F5 First 5 Innings
    CIN Reds @ CHC Cubs · 4:40 PM PDT · TBD vs Edward Cabrera
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.40 — your starter projects better
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.69 R
    • Defense (OAA) +0.28 R
    WIN % 61.4%
    EV +12.5%
    STAKE 1.9u
    -120
  2. 04 ★★★☆☆ LOCK
    @
    NBA Timberwolves +13.5 Spread
    MIN Timberwolves @ SAS Spurs · 6:30 PM PDT · Net +1.4 · Net +0.0
    WHY
    • Top-10 offense (119.2 ORtg)
    WIN % 59.4%
    EV +13.4%
    STAKE 1.8u
    -110
  3. 05 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB F5 Over 5.5 F5 Total
    NYM Mets @ COL Rockies · 5:40 PM PDT · TBD vs Tomoyuki Sugano
    WHY
    • Park factor 1.23 — hitter-friendly
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.73 R
    WIN % 57.3%
    EV +9.4%
    STAKE 1.3u
    -110
  4. 06 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Marlins F5 First 5 Innings
    PHI Phillies @ MIA Marlins · 3:40 PM PDT · Aaron Nola vs Janson Junk
    WHY
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.29 R
    WIN % 59.5%
    EV +9.1%
    STAKE 1.4u
    -120
  5. 07 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Cubs -1.5 Run Line
    CIN Reds @ CHC Cubs · 4:40 PM PDT · TBD vs Edward Cabrera
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.40 — your starter projects better
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.69 R
    • Defense (OAA) +0.28 R
    WIN % 48.5%
    EV +11.5%
    STAKE 1.1u
    +130
  6. 08 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Rays F5 First 5 Innings
    TOR Blue Jays @ TB Rays · 3:40 PM PDT · TBD vs Nick Martinez
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.34 — your starter projects better
    • Catcher framing +0.52 R
    • Recent form 8-2 (last 10)
    WIN % 59.0%
    EV +8.1%
    STAKE 1.2u
    -120
  7. 09 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Dodgers F5 First 5 Innings
    LAD Dodgers @ HOU Astros · 5:10 PM PDT · Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs TBD
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.21 — your starter projects better
    • Catcher framing +0.35 R
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.15 R
    WIN % 56.0%
    EV +2.7%
    STAKE 0.4u
    -120
  8. 10 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB F5 Over 5.5 F5 Total
    LAD Dodgers @ HOU Astros · 5:10 PM PDT · Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs TBD
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.21 — your starter projects better
    • Catcher framing +0.35 R
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.15 R
    WIN % 53.4%
    EV +1.9%
    STAKE 0.3u
    -110
  9. 11 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Under 7.5 Total
    PHI Phillies @ MIA Marlins · 3:40 PM PDT · Aaron Nola vs Janson Junk
    WHY
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +1.12 R
    • Catcher framing +0.55 R
    • FIP edge +0.50 — your starter projects better
    WIN % 53.6%
    EV +2.3%
    STAKE 0.3u
    -110
  10. 12 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Dodgers -1.5 Run Line
    LAD Dodgers @ HOU Astros · 5:10 PM PDT · Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs TBD
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.21 — your starter projects better
    • Catcher framing +0.35 R
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.15 R
    WIN % 44.5%
    EV +2.3%
    STAKE 0.2u
    +130
  11. 13 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Under 10.5 Total
    CIN Reds @ CHC Cubs · 4:40 PM PDT · TBD vs Edward Cabrera
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.40 — your starter projects better
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.69 R
    • Defense (OAA) +0.28 R
    WIN % 53.3%
    EV +1.7%
    STAKE 0.2u
    -110
  12. 14 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Brewers -1.5 Run Line
    MIL Brewers @ STL Cardinals · 4:45 PM PDT · Brandon Sproat vs Kyle Leahy
    WHY
    • FIP edge +0.73 — your starter projects better
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.34 R
    • Catcher framing +0.24 R
    WIN % 44.4%
    EV +2.1%
    STAKE 0.2u
    +130
  13. 15 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Under 7.5 Total
    SD Padres @ SF Giants · 6:45 PM PDT · Randy Vasquez vs TBD
    WHY
    • Park factor 0.90 — pitcher-friendly
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.32 R
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.23 R
    WIN % 53.1%
    EV +1.4%
    STAKE 0.2u
    -110
  14. 16 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB F5 Over 5.5 F5 Total
    MIL Brewers @ STL Cardinals · 4:45 PM PDT · Brandon Sproat vs Kyle Leahy
    WHY
    • FIP edge +0.73 — your starter projects better
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.34 R
    • Catcher framing +0.24 R
    WIN % 52.3%
    EV +-0.2%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110
  15. 17 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Marlins +1.5 Run Line
    PHI Phillies @ MIA Marlins · 3:40 PM PDT · Aaron Nola vs Janson Junk
    WHY
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.29 R
    WIN % 63.8%
    EV +-0.8%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180
  16. 18 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Giants +1.5 Run Line
    SD Padres @ SF Giants · 6:45 PM PDT · Randy Vasquez vs TBD
    WHY
    • Catcher framing +0.50 R
    WIN % 62.7%
    EV +-2.4%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180
  17. 19 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Over 10.5 Total
    LAD Dodgers @ HOU Astros · 5:10 PM PDT · Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs TBD
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.21 — your starter projects better
    • Catcher framing +0.35 R
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.15 R
    WIN % 50.6%
    EV +-3.5%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110
  18. 20 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Over 8.5 Total
    TOR Blue Jays @ TB Rays · 3:40 PM PDT · TBD vs Nick Martinez
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.34 — your starter projects better
    • Catcher framing +0.52 R
    • Recent form 8-2 (last 10)
    WIN % 50.1%
    EV +-4.3%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110
  19. 21 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Mets +1.5 Run Line
    NYM Mets @ COL Rockies · 5:40 PM PDT · TBD vs Tomoyuki Sugano
    WHY
    • Catcher framing +0.33 R
    WIN % 60.8%
    EV +-5.4%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180
  20. 22 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Over 10.5 Total
    MIL Brewers @ STL Cardinals · 4:45 PM PDT · Brandon Sproat vs Kyle Leahy
    WHY
    • FIP edge +0.73 — your starter projects better
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.34 R
    • Catcher framing +0.24 R
    WIN % 48.8%
    EV +-6.8%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110

Today's Card

Showing 13 of 13 · 0-0 today
Season Snapshot

By the / Numbers

Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.

Today's Card
48
45 MLB · 3 NBA
Season Record
93-82-3
53.1% win rate since 2026-04-22
Lock Pick Win %
20-10
66.7% on locks (30 graded)
Last 10
6-4
last 10 graded
Streak
W3
hot card
Confidence Avg
65%
model blend

Leader/board

Top 8 Cappers · Last 30 Days
#
Capper
W-L
Win%
Units
ROI
● Current Streak
W5
5 IN A ROW · +$623 ON L5
Win Loss Push

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model
— 01
Pitching & Matchups
MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.
— 02
Market Read
We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.
— 03
Pace & Environment
MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).
— 04
Fatigue & Availability
MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.