Bookie Bullies
Bookie BulliesMLB + NBA · Daily Picks
Heads-up Picks made by MarcDuck with AI assistance, weighing up to 35 factors per game. Predictions are not 100% correct. This is NOT financial advice. 21+ entertainment only. Full disclaimer.
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By MarcDuck · Curated with AI assistance, the human formulates every pick
MON · APR 20 · 2026 Week 4 · Regular Season
First Pitch 3:40 PM PDT

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

4 plays · best → worst
  1. 01 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Phillies ML Moneyline
    ATH Athletics @ PHI Phillies · 3:40 PM PDT · Luis Severino vs Cristopher Sanchez
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.80 — your starter projects better
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +1.12 R
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.36 R
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —
  2. 02 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Yankees ML Moneyline
    TEX Rangers @ NYY Yankees · 4:05 PM PDT · Jacob deGrom vs Elmer Rodriguez
    WHY
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.69 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.40 R
    • Recent form 8-2 (last 10)
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —
  3. 03 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Cubs ML Moneyline
    CIN Reds @ CHC Cubs · 4:40 PM PDT · Andrew Abbott vs Jameson Taillon
    WHY
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.69 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.44 R
    • Recent form 7-3 (last 10)
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —
  4. 04 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Braves ML Moneyline
    ATL Braves @ SEA Mariners · 6:40 PM PDT · Bryce Elder vs George Kirby
    WHY
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.83 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.76 R
    • Defense (OAA) +0.46 R
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

Showing 22 of 22
Filter by Sport
Market
Model Confidence
  1. 05 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Tigers F5 First 5 Innings
    BOS Red Sox @ DET Tigers · 3:40 PM PDT · Brayan Bello vs Framber Valdez
    WHY
    • FIP edge +0.82 — your starter projects better
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.61 R
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.28 R
    WIN % 54.1%
    EV +-0.8%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -120
  2. 06 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Dodgers -1.5 Run Line
    LAD Dodgers @ HOU Astros · 5:10 PM PDT · Shohei Ohtani vs Peter Lambert
    WHY
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.72 R
    • Catcher framing +0.35 R
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.16 R
    WIN % 38.8%
    EV +-10.8%
    STAKE 0.0u
    +130
  3. 07 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Marlins F5 First 5 Innings
    BAL Orioles @ MIA Marlins · 3:40 PM PDT · Chris Bassitt vs Sandy Alcantara
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.80 — your starter projects better
    WIN % 48.5%
    EV +-11.1%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -120
  4. 08 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB F5 Under 3.5 F5 Total
    TOR Blue Jays @ TB Rays · 3:40 PM PDT · Kevin Gausman vs Drew Rasmussen
    WHY
    • Catcher framing +0.52 R
    • Recent form 9-1 (last 10)
    • Park factor 0.93 — pitcher-friendly
    WIN % 46.5%
    EV +-11.2%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110
  5. 09 ★★★★☆
    @
    NBA Lakers +15.5 Spread
    LAL Lakers @ OKC Thunder · 5:30 PM PDT · Net +2.8 · Net +9.5
    WHY
    • Top-10 offense (117.5 ORtg)
    WIN % 45.7%
    EV +-12.8%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110
  6. 10 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB White Sox F5 First 5 Innings
    CHW White Sox @ LAA Angels · 6:38 PM PDT · Erick Fedde vs TBD
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.87 — your starter projects better
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.60 R
    • Recent form 7-3 (last 10)
    WIN % 46.1%
    EV +-15.4%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -120
  7. 11 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Cardinals F5 First 5 Innings
    MIL Brewers @ STL Cardinals · 4:45 PM PDT · Brandon Sproat vs Andre Pallante
    WHY
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.24 R
    WIN % 45.4%
    EV +-16.8%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -120
  8. 12 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Twins -1.5 Run Line
    MIN Twins @ WSH Nationals · 3:45 PM PDT · Taj Bradley vs Cade Cavalli
    WHY
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.27 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.32 R
    • Catcher framing +0.16 R
    WIN % 36.0%
    EV +-17.1%
    STAKE 0.0u
    +130
  9. 13 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB F5 Over 5.5 F5 Total
    BOS Red Sox @ DET Tigers · 3:40 PM PDT · Brayan Bello vs Framber Valdez
    WHY
    • FIP edge +0.82 — your starter projects better
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.61 R
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.28 R
    WIN % 42.8%
    EV +-18.3%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110
  10. 14 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Mets F5 First 5 Innings
    NYM Mets @ COL Rockies · 5:40 PM PDT · Freddy Peralta vs Michael Lorenzen
    WHY
    • FIP edge +0.54 — your starter projects better
    • Catcher framing +0.33 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.32 R
    WIN % 44.5%
    EV +-18.5%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -120
  11. 15 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Rays F5 First 5 Innings
    TOR Blue Jays @ TB Rays · 3:40 PM PDT · Kevin Gausman vs Drew Rasmussen
    WHY
    • Catcher framing +0.52 R
    • Recent form 9-1 (last 10)
    WIN % 44.4%
    EV +-18.7%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -120
  12. 16 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Under 10.5 Total
    MIN Twins @ WSH Nationals · 3:45 PM PDT · Taj Bradley vs Cade Cavalli
    WHY
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.27 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.32 R
    • Catcher framing +0.16 R
    WIN % 42.1%
    EV +-19.5%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110
  13. 17 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Under 10.5 Total
    MIL Brewers @ STL Cardinals · 4:45 PM PDT · Brandon Sproat vs Andre Pallante
    WHY
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.32 R
    • Catcher framing +0.24 R
    WIN % 42.1%
    EV +-19.7%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110
  14. 18 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB F5 Over 5.5 F5 Total
    PIT Pirates @ ARI Diamondbacks · 6:40 PM PDT · Bubba Chandler vs Eduardo Rodriguez
    WHY
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.25 R
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.20 R
    • Park factor 1.05 — hitter-friendly
    WIN % 41.5%
    EV +-20.7%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110
  15. 19 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Diamondbacks +1.5 Run Line
    PIT Pirates @ ARI Diamondbacks · 6:40 PM PDT · Bubba Chandler vs Eduardo Rodriguez
    WHY
    • FIP edge +0.45 — your starter projects better
    • Catcher framing +0.29 R
    WIN % 50.2%
    EV +-21.9%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180
  16. 20 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Rockies +1.5 Run Line
    NYM Mets @ COL Rockies · 5:40 PM PDT · Freddy Peralta vs Michael Lorenzen
    WHY
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.71 R
    WIN % 50.0%
    EV +-22.2%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180
  17. 21 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Over 8.5 Total
    BAL Orioles @ MIA Marlins · 3:40 PM PDT · Chris Bassitt vs Sandy Alcantara
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.80 — your starter projects better
    WIN % 40.7%
    EV +-22.3%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110
  18. 22 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Giants +1.5 Run Line
    SD Padres @ SF Giants · 6:45 PM PDT · Walker Buehler vs Logan Webb
    WHY
    • FIP edge +0.50 — your starter projects better
    • Catcher framing +0.50 R
    WIN % 49.8%
    EV +-22.6%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180
  19. 23 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Angels +1.5 Run Line
    CHW White Sox @ LAA Angels · 6:38 PM PDT · Erick Fedde vs TBD
    WHY
    • Catcher framing +0.11 R
    WIN % 49.4%
    EV +-23.1%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180
  20. 24 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Orioles +1.5 Run Line
    BAL Orioles @ MIA Marlins · 3:40 PM PDT · Chris Bassitt vs Sandy Alcantara
    WHY
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.92 R
    • Catcher framing +0.28 R
    WIN % 49.1%
    EV +-23.7%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180
  21. 25 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Blue Jays +1.5 Run Line
    TOR Blue Jays @ TB Rays · 3:40 PM PDT · Kevin Gausman vs Drew Rasmussen
    WHY
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.38 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.28 R
    • Defense (OAA) +0.24 R
    WIN % 47.9%
    EV +-25.5%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180
  22. 26 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Over 10.5 Total
    PIT Pirates @ ARI Diamondbacks · 6:40 PM PDT · Bubba Chandler vs Eduardo Rodriguez
    WHY
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.25 R
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.20 R
    • Park factor 1.05 — hitter-friendly
    WIN % 38.6%
    EV +-26.2%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110

Today's Card

Showing 13 of 13 · 0-0 today
Season Snapshot

By the / Numbers

Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.

Today's Card
57
54 MLB · 3 NBA
Season Record
107-85-3
55.7% win rate since 2026-04-22
Lock Pick Win %
25-10
71.4% on locks (35 graded)
Last 10
8-2
last 10 graded
Streak
W5
hot card
Confidence Avg
67%
model blend

Leader/board

Top 8 Cappers · Last 30 Days
#
Capper
W-L
Win%
Units
ROI
● Current Streak
W5
5 IN A ROW · +$623 ON L5
Win Loss Push

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model
— 01
Pitching & Matchups
MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.
— 02
Market Read
We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.
— 03
Pace & Environment
MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).
— 04
Fatigue & Availability
MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.