Bookie Bullies
Bookie BulliesMLB + NBA · Daily Picks
Heads-up Picks made by MarcDuck with AI assistance, weighing up to 35 factors per game. Predictions are not 100% correct. This is NOT financial advice. 21+ entertainment only. Full disclaimer.
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By MarcDuck · Curated with AI assistance, the human formulates every pick
MON · APR 20 · 2026 Week 4 · Regular Season
First Pitch 10:10 AM PDT

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

5 plays · best → worst
  1. 01 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Dodgers F5 First 5 Innings
    LAD Dodgers @ HOU Astros · 11:10 AM PDT · Tyler Glasnow vs Lance McCullers Jr.
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.43 — your starter projects better
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.72 R
    • Catcher framing +0.35 R
    WIN % 63.2%
    EV +15.9%
    STAKE 2.4u
    -120
  2. 02 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Brewers F5 First 5 Innings
    MIL Brewers @ STL Cardinals · 10:15 AM PDT · Jacob Misiorowski vs Matthew Liberatore
    WHY
    • FIP edge +2.29 — your starter projects better
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.48 R
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.21 R
    WIN % 61.9%
    EV +13.5%
    STAKE 2.0u
    -120
  3. 03 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Yankees F5 First 5 Innings
    TEX Rangers @ NYY Yankees · 4:05 PM PDT · Nathan Eovaldi vs Will Warren
    WHY
    • FIP edge +0.89 — your starter projects better
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.57 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.40 R
    WIN % 60.0%
    EV +10.0%
    STAKE 1.5u
    -120
  4. 04 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Cubs F5 First 5 Innings
    CIN Reds @ CHC Cubs · 4:40 PM PDT · Brady Singer vs Colin Rea
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.15 — your starter projects better
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.65 R
    • Defense (OAA) +0.34 R
    WIN % 59.9%
    EV +9.8%
    STAKE 1.5u
    -120
  5. 05 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Braves ML Moneyline
    ATL Braves @ SEA Mariners · 1:10 PM PDT · Grant Holmes vs Bryan Woo
    WHY
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.75 R
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.43 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.76 R
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    —

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

Showing 16 of 16
Filter by Sport
Market
Model Confidence
  1. 06 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Pirates F5 First 5 Innings
    PIT Pirates @ ARI Diamondbacks · 6:40 PM PDT · Paul Skenes vs Michael Soroka
    WHY
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.69 R
    • Recent form 5-5 (last 10)
    WIN % 61.3%
    EV +12.3%
    STAKE 1.9u
    -120
  2. 07 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Rays F5 First 5 Innings
    TOR Blue Jays @ TB Rays · 10:10 AM PDT · Patrick Corbin vs Shane McClanahan
    WHY
    • Catcher framing +0.52 R
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.36 R
    • Recent form 9-1 (last 10)
    WIN % 60.6%
    EV +11.0%
    STAKE 1.7u
    -120
  3. 08 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Orioles F5 First 5 Innings
    BAL Orioles @ MIA Marlins · 3:40 PM PDT · Brandon Young vs Eury Perez
    WHY
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.92 R
    • Catcher framing +0.28 R
    WIN % 58.6%
    EV +7.4%
    STAKE 1.1u
    -120
  4. 09 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Guardians F5 First 5 Innings
    CLE Guardians @ KC Royals · 4:40 PM PDT · Joey Cantillo vs Cole Ragans
    WHY
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.28 R
    • Catcher framing +0.19 R
    WIN % 57.8%
    EV +6.0%
    STAKE 0.9u
    -120
  5. 10 ★★★☆☆ LOCK
    @
    NBA Timberwolves +9.5 Spread
    MIN Timberwolves @ SAS Spurs · 6:30 PM PDT · Net +1.4 · Net +0.0
    WHY
    • Top-10 offense (119.2 ORtg)
    WIN % 56.0%
    EV +7.0%
    STAKE 1.0u
    -110
  6. 11 ★★★☆☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Twins F5 First 5 Innings
    MIN Twins @ WSH Nationals · 3:45 PM PDT · Bailey Ober vs Miles Mikolas
    WHY
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.50 R
    • FIP edge +0.65 — your starter projects better
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.32 R
    WIN % 57.6%
    EV +5.7%
    STAKE 0.9u
    -120
  7. 12 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Padres F5 First 5 Innings
    SD Padres @ SF Giants · 12:45 PM PDT · Matt Waldron vs Adrian Houser
    WHY
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.20 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.40 R
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.21 R
    WIN % 56.8%
    EV +4.1%
    STAKE 0.6u
    -120
  8. 13 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Padres +1.5 Run Line
    SD Padres @ SF Giants · 12:45 PM PDT · Matt Waldron vs Adrian Houser
    WHY
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.20 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.40 R
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.21 R
    WIN % 64.1%
    EV +-0.3%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180
  9. 14 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Diamondbacks +1.5 Run Line
    PIT Pirates @ ARI Diamondbacks · 6:40 PM PDT · Paul Skenes vs Michael Soroka
    WHY
    • FIP edge +0.48 — your starter projects better
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.29 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.32 R
    WIN % 62.8%
    EV +-2.3%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180
  10. 15 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Rockies +1.5 Run Line
    NYM Mets @ COL Rockies · 12:10 PM PDT · Christian Scott vs Jose Quintana
    WHY
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.66 R
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.21 R
    WIN % 62.7%
    EV +-2.5%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180
  11. 16 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Guardians +1.5 Run Line
    CLE Guardians @ KC Royals · 4:40 PM PDT · Joey Cantillo vs Cole Ragans
    WHY
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.28 R
    • Catcher framing +0.19 R
    WIN % 62.7%
    EV +-2.5%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180
  12. 17 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Orioles +1.5 Run Line
    BAL Orioles @ MIA Marlins · 3:40 PM PDT · Brandon Young vs Eury Perez
    WHY
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.92 R
    • Catcher framing +0.28 R
    WIN % 62.6%
    EV +-2.6%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180
  13. 18 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Over 7.5 Total
    TOR Blue Jays @ TB Rays · 10:10 AM PDT · Patrick Corbin vs Shane McClanahan
    WHY
    • Catcher framing +0.52 R
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.36 R
    • Recent form 9-1 (last 10)
    WIN % 50.0%
    EV +-4.5%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110
  14. 19 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Under 8.5 Total
    ATH Athletics @ PHI Phillies · 3:40 PM PDT · Jeffrey Springs vs Zack Wheeler
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.24 — your starter projects better
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.80 R
    • Catcher framing +0.58 R
    WIN % 50.0%
    EV +-4.5%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110
  15. 20 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Under 8.5 Total
    BAL Orioles @ MIA Marlins · 3:40 PM PDT · Brandon Young vs Eury Perez
    WHY
    • Park factor 0.88 — pitcher-friendly
    WIN % 50.0%
    EV +-4.5%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110
  16. 21 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Under 8.5 Total
    CLE Guardians @ KC Royals · 4:40 PM PDT · Joey Cantillo vs Cole Ragans
    WHY
    • Wind blowing in +0.30 R
    • Recent form 8-2 (last 10)
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.32 R
    WIN % 50.0%
    EV +-4.5%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110

Today's Card

Showing 13 of 13 · 0-0 today
Season Snapshot

By the / Numbers

Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.

Today's Card
56
53 MLB · 3 NBA
Season Record
111-93-3
54.4% win rate since 2026-04-22
Lock Pick Win %
25-11
69.4% on locks (36 graded)
Last 10
3-7
last 10 graded
Streak
L5
current run
Confidence Avg
69%
model blend

Leader/board

Top 8 Cappers · Last 30 Days
#
Capper
W-L
Win%
Units
ROI
● Current Streak
W5
5 IN A ROW · +$623 ON L5
Win Loss Push

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model
— 01
Pitching & Matchups
MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.
— 02
Market Read
We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.
— 03
Pace & Environment
MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).
— 04
Fatigue & Availability
MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.