Heads-up Picks made by MarcDuck with AI assistance, weighing up to 35 factors per game. Predictions are not 100% correct. This is NOT financial advice. 21+ entertainment only. Full disclaimer.

Today's Card · Locked In

Today's/Picks

By MarcDuck · Curated with AI assistance, the human formulates every pick

MON · APR 20 · 2026 Week 4 · Regular Season
First Pitch Final

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

0 plays · best → worst

No 5★ +EV locks on today's board. Check back at 8am for the morning refresh.

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

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No picks match these filters. Try widening your criteria.

Season Snapshot

By the / Numbers

Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.

Today's Card

36 MLB · 2 NBA

Season Record

128-106-5

54.7% win rate since 2026-04-22

Lock Pick Win %

32-13

71.1% on locks (45 graded)

Last 10

5-5

last 10 graded

Streak

current run

Confidence Avg

20%

model blend

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model

— 01

Pitching & Matchups

MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.

— 02

Market Read

We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.

— 03

Pace & Environment

MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).

— 04

Fatigue & Availability

MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.