College Football / Leans

These are leans, not picks. Here is the difference.

Every row below is what our model prefers and how strongly. What it is not is a proven edge. Six approaches have been tested against real closing lines and none has beaten the market yet: our spread model runs 49.2% against the number and our totals model runs about 51%, both inside the noise of a coin flip. Most sites would hide that. We print the record at the top of the page and grade every lean, sides and totals, so you can watch it earn trust or fail to.

The ranking is deliberate and backwards from what you would expect. Small disagreements rank above big ones, because the games where we are 20 points off the book are the games where the book has been right and we have been wrong. Leans on favorites rank above leans on dogs, because the math behind these ratings structurally over-likes underdogs, and a favorite lean is one of the few reads that did not come from that bias.

Want the thing that actually wins? The MLB first-inning board is 63.5% on plays →