● FREE MLB PICKS BY MARCDUCK · AI-ASSISTED
Free MLB Picks Today, July 28, 2026
MLB picks by MarcDuck with AI assistance for Tuesday, July 28, 2026. Model confidence and expected value on every side, updated twice daily. No signup, no paywall.
BY MARCDUCK
AI-ASSISTED
Major League Baseball
Expected Value
Today's MLB Picks
Every side below is a pick by MarcDuck made with AI assistance. The AI scores each side on up to 35 factors and surfaces the edge; MarcDuck reviews and formulates the final pick. Confidence is the model's internal rating of signal strength. Expected value is the edge over the market moneyline.
Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds
1:40 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates
6:40 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers
6:40 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins
6:40 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays
6:40 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals
6:45 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets
7:10 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds
7:10 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins
7:40 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox
7:40 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals
7:45 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels
9:38 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Boston Red Sox @ Athletics
9:40 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres
9:40 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants
9:45 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers
10:10 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
How the MLB Picks Are Made
Every MLB slate is scored using starting-pitcher projections (ERA, xFIP, stuff+), bullpen rest and strength, recent batting splits, ballpark and weather factors, and live lineup data. The model outputs a win probability, compares it to the market moneyline, and flags only the bets with positive expected value.
Picks are made by MarcDuck with AI assistance — no tout hype, no hand-picked slates from "experts" with conflicts of interest. Picks are ranked by model confidence and expected value, and every input is documented on the methodology page.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are Bookie Bullies MLB picks really free?
Yes. Every MLB pick on this page is free. No signup, no paywall, no email required. The full model output (pick, confidence, expected value, moneyline) is visible to anyone.
How are the MLB picks made?
Every pick is made by MarcDuck (the publisher) with the assistance of AI software, not by AI alone. The AI ingests starting pitcher ERA/xFIP/stuff+, bullpen quality, team batting splits, ballpark factors, weather, umpire data, travel, and live lineups across up to 35 factors per game; it outputs a probability for each side and compares it to the market moneyline. MarcDuck reviews the AI's output, refines edge cases the model can miss, and formulates the final pick before it goes on the card.
How often are the MLB picks updated?
Twice daily. The morning run at 8 AM Pacific grades the previous day and regenerates today's card. The afternoon run at 4 PM Pacific builds tomorrow's card once starting pitchers are confirmed.
What does expected value (EV) mean on the picks?
Expected value is the average profit per unit wagered if the model's probability is correct. A +5% EV means a $100 bet returns $5 on average over many repetitions. Picks with positive EV have market edge according to the model.
Browse MLB Picks by Market
Drill into the specific bet type. Each market page below is updated daily with the model's edges, expected value, and recommended Kelly stakes.
Browse MLB Picks by Team
Each team page tracks the model's history on that club: which spots it has cashed, which it has missed, and what factors drove the call. Tap a team for the full season ledger plus today's pick if they're playing.
Learn the Concepts
The model is built on sabermetric foundations. If you want to understand WHY a pick has positive EV, these short explainers walk through the math:
See Also