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Jesus Luzardo Picks Coverage

Every Jesus Luzardo start we've projected and graded in the last 120 days. Current team: Philadelphia Phillies. Recent ERA: 3.88. Record: 6-4. Each start links to the matchup's permanent record with our model's prediction and signals at the time.

★ STARTING TONIGHT
Jesus Luzardo vs Kansas City Royals
PHI @ KC · Predicted total: 7.7 runs
View tonight's full pick + edge analysis →
Starts Tracked
13
Picks On Team
5
W-L-P
3-2-0
Hit Rate
60.0%

All Starts Covered

DateMatchupERA @ StartPick Result
2026-07-04Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals3.88
2026-06-28Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets3.88
2026-06-23Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals4.39
2026-06-10Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays4.35
2026-06-05Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox4.56
2026-05-30Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers4.38
2026-05-25Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres4.38W
2026-05-19Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds4.85L
2026-05-14Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox5.07W
2026-05-08Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies5.98L
2026-05-03Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins5.09W
2026-04-28Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants6.91
2026-04-21Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago Cubs7.94

About This Page

The table above lists every Jesus Luzardo start that appeared in Bookie Bullies' daily MLB coverage. ERA shown is what the model used at that point in the season, not a retroactive value. The "Pick Result" column reflects whether a pick we made on Jesus Luzardo's team won, lost, or pushed. Pushes count separately. "Pending" means the game hasn't graded yet.

All Philadelphia Phillies picks → See our full model in the methodology or aggregate record on the track record page.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does the model rate Jesus Luzardo's starts?
Jesus Luzardo's starts are scored by FIP and xFIP (park-and-league-adjusted), recent form trend (last 3 starts ERA delta vs season), velocity drop penalty when last start had velo decline, home/road and day/night splits, opposing lineup xwOBA vs handedness, and pitcher H2H history vs the opposing team regressed at 50 TBF. The model also factors bullpen quality (in case Jesus Luzardo exits early), park factors, weather, and umpire tendencies.
Where can I find past picks involving Jesus Luzardo?
Every pick made on a Jesus Luzardo start is logged on this page and at /track-record.html. Each row in the table above links to a permanent record with the model's full signals at pick time, the result, and the ESPN comparison probability.
How accurate are the predictions on Jesus Luzardo?
Per-pitcher accuracy isn't a large enough sample yet to publish individually. Aggregate accuracy lives on the /track-record.html page with per-bucket calibration. The Brier score audit catches pitcher-specific calibration drift if it appears.
Are these picks free?
Yes. Every pick on Bookie Bullies is free. No signup, no paywall. Full model output (probability, EV, recommended stake) is visible on every pick page.