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Merrill Kelly Picks Coverage

Every Merrill Kelly start we've projected and graded in the last 120 days. Current team: Arizona Diamondbacks. Recent ERA: 5.84. Record: 5-8. Each start links to the matchup's permanent record with our model's prediction and signals at the time.

Starts Tracked
12
Picks On Team
3
W-L-P
3-0-0
Hit Rate
100.0%

All Starts Covered

DateMatchupERA @ StartPick Result
2026-06-28Arizona Diamondbacks @ Tampa Bay Rays5.84
2026-06-22Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals5.71
2026-06-11Arizona Diamondbacks @ Miami Marlins5.46
2026-06-05Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals5.71
2026-05-31Arizona Diamondbacks @ Seattle Mariners5.06
2026-05-25Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants5.25
2026-05-20Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants5.71W
2026-05-15Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies7.62W
2026-05-09Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets7.62W
2026-05-03Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs9.95
2026-04-28Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers9.31
2026-04-21Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago White Sox3.38

About This Page

The table above lists every Merrill Kelly start that appeared in Bookie Bullies' daily MLB coverage. ERA shown is what the model used at that point in the season, not a retroactive value. The "Pick Result" column reflects whether a pick we made on Merrill Kelly's team won, lost, or pushed. Pushes count separately. "Pending" means the game hasn't graded yet.

All Arizona Diamondbacks picks → See our full model in the methodology or aggregate record on the track record page.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does the model rate Merrill Kelly's starts?
Merrill Kelly's starts are scored by FIP and xFIP (park-and-league-adjusted), recent form trend (last 3 starts ERA delta vs season), velocity drop penalty when last start had velo decline, home/road and day/night splits, opposing lineup xwOBA vs handedness, and pitcher H2H history vs the opposing team regressed at 50 TBF. The model also factors bullpen quality (in case Merrill Kelly exits early), park factors, weather, and umpire tendencies.
Where can I find past picks involving Merrill Kelly?
Every pick made on a Merrill Kelly start is logged on this page and at /track-record.html. Each row in the table above links to a permanent record with the model's full signals at pick time, the result, and the ESPN comparison probability.
How accurate are the predictions on Merrill Kelly?
Per-pitcher accuracy isn't a large enough sample yet to publish individually. Aggregate accuracy lives on the /track-record.html page with per-bucket calibration. The Brier score audit catches pitcher-specific calibration drift if it appears.
Are these picks free?
Yes. Every pick on Bookie Bullies is free. No signup, no paywall. Full model output (probability, EV, recommended stake) is visible on every pick page.