Every Merrill Kelly start we've projected and graded in the last 120 days.
Current team: Arizona Diamondbacks.
Recent ERA: 5.0.
Record: 9-14.
Each start links to the matchup's permanent record with our model's
prediction and signals at the time.
The table above lists every Merrill Kelly start that appeared in Bookie Bullies'
daily MLB coverage. ERA shown is what the model used at that point in the season,
not a retroactive value. The "Pick Result" column reflects whether a pick we made
on Merrill Kelly's team won, lost, or pushed. Pushes count separately. "Pending"
means the game hasn't graded yet.
How does the model rate Merrill Kelly's starts?
Merrill Kelly's starts are scored by FIP and xFIP (park-and-league-adjusted), recent form trend (last 3 starts ERA delta vs season), velocity drop penalty when last start had velo decline, home/road and day/night splits, opposing lineup xwOBA vs handedness, and pitcher H2H history vs the opposing team regressed at 50 TBF. The model also factors bullpen quality (in case Merrill Kelly exits early), park factors, weather, and umpire tendencies.
Where can I find past picks involving Merrill Kelly?
Every pick made on a Merrill Kelly start is logged on this page and at /track-record.html. Each row in the table above links to a permanent record with the model's full signals at pick time, the result, and the ESPN comparison probability.
How accurate are the predictions on Merrill Kelly?
Per-pitcher accuracy isn't a large enough sample yet to publish individually. Aggregate accuracy lives on the /track-record.html page with per-bucket calibration. The Brier score audit catches pitcher-specific calibration drift if it appears.
Are these picks free?
Yes. Every pick on Bookie Bullies is free. No signup, no paywall. Full model output (probability, EV, recommended stake) is visible on every pick page.