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Mitch Keller Picks Coverage

Every Mitch Keller start we've projected and graded in the last 120 days. Current team: Pittsburgh Pirates. Recent ERA: 4.87. Record: 6-5. Each start links to the matchup's permanent record with our model's prediction and signals at the time.

Starts Tracked
12
Picks On Team
4
W-L-P
1-2-0
Hit Rate
33.3%

All Starts Covered

DateMatchupERA @ StartPick Result
2026-06-28Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds4.87
2026-06-23Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners4.89
2026-06-11Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers5.14
2026-06-05Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves4.81
2026-05-30Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota Twins4.35
2026-05-24Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays3.64
2026-05-19Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals3.86L
2026-05-13Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies3.59L
2026-05-07Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks2.87W
2026-05-01Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds3.18PENDING
2026-04-25Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers3.18
2026-04-19Pittsburgh Pirates vs Tampa Bay Rays2.86

About This Page

The table above lists every Mitch Keller start that appeared in Bookie Bullies' daily MLB coverage. ERA shown is what the model used at that point in the season, not a retroactive value. The "Pick Result" column reflects whether a pick we made on Mitch Keller's team won, lost, or pushed. Pushes count separately. "Pending" means the game hasn't graded yet.

All Pittsburgh Pirates picks → See our full model in the methodology or aggregate record on the track record page.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does the model rate Mitch Keller's starts?
Mitch Keller's starts are scored by FIP and xFIP (park-and-league-adjusted), recent form trend (last 3 starts ERA delta vs season), velocity drop penalty when last start had velo decline, home/road and day/night splits, opposing lineup xwOBA vs handedness, and pitcher H2H history vs the opposing team regressed at 50 TBF. The model also factors bullpen quality (in case Mitch Keller exits early), park factors, weather, and umpire tendencies.
Where can I find past picks involving Mitch Keller?
Every pick made on a Mitch Keller start is logged on this page and at /track-record.html. Each row in the table above links to a permanent record with the model's full signals at pick time, the result, and the ESPN comparison probability.
How accurate are the predictions on Mitch Keller?
Per-pitcher accuracy isn't a large enough sample yet to publish individually. Aggregate accuracy lives on the /track-record.html page with per-bucket calibration. The Brier score audit catches pitcher-specific calibration drift if it appears.
Are these picks free?
Yes. Every pick on Bookie Bullies is free. No signup, no paywall. Full model output (probability, EV, recommended stake) is visible on every pick page.