Cincinnati Reds Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cincinnati Reds. Played at Great American Ball Park. Starting pitchers: Mitch Keller for PIT, Chase Burns for CIN. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +3.29
- Bullpen quality: -0.22
- Rolling wOBA (offense form): -0.30
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 59.9% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Cincinnati Reds pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of +0.68 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. Bullpen quality favored the away side by 0.22 expected runs. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 59.9% chance. Our model had it at 63.2%.
Other picks from 2026-08-02
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