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Payton Tolle Picks Coverage

Every Payton Tolle start we've projected and graded in the last 120 days. Current team: Boston Red Sox. Recent ERA: —. Record: 0-0. Each start links to the matchup's permanent record with our model's prediction and signals at the time.

Starts Tracked
17
Picks On Team
0
W-L-P
0-0-0
Hit Rate
n/a

All Starts Covered

DateMatchupERA @ StartPick Result
2026-09-29Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees——
2026-09-22Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians3.02—
2026-09-13Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals3.02—
2026-09-06Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles3.15—
2026-08-31Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners3.09—
2026-08-25Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins3.08—
2026-08-19Boston Red Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks2.97—
2026-08-13Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays2.97—
2026-08-07Boston Red Sox vs Oakland Athletics3.30—
2026-08-01Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers3.30—
2026-07-27Boston Red Sox @ Oakland Athletics3.32—
2026-07-20Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles3.31—
2026-07-12Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets3.11—
2026-07-07Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox3.14—
2026-07-01Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals3.39—
2026-06-26Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees2.78—
2026-06-09Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays2.70—

About This Page

The table above lists every Payton Tolle start that appeared in Bookie Bullies' daily MLB coverage. ERA shown is what the model used at that point in the season, not a retroactive value. The "Pick Result" column reflects whether a pick we made on Payton Tolle's team won, lost, or pushed. Pushes count separately. "Pending" means the game hasn't graded yet.

All Boston Red Sox picks → See our full model in the methodology or aggregate record on the track record page.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does the model rate Payton Tolle's starts?
Payton Tolle's starts are scored by FIP and xFIP (park-and-league-adjusted), recent form trend (last 3 starts ERA delta vs season), velocity drop penalty when last start had velo decline, home/road and day/night splits, opposing lineup xwOBA vs handedness, and pitcher H2H history vs the opposing team regressed at 50 TBF. The model also factors bullpen quality (in case Payton Tolle exits early), park factors, weather, and umpire tendencies.
Where can I find past picks involving Payton Tolle?
Every pick made on a Payton Tolle start is logged on this page and at /track-record.html. Each row in the table above links to a permanent record with the model's full signals at pick time, the result, and the ESPN comparison probability.
How accurate are the predictions on Payton Tolle?
Per-pitcher accuracy isn't a large enough sample yet to publish individually. Aggregate accuracy lives on the /track-record.html page. We do not run a separate audit for pitcher-specific calibration drift if it appears.
Are these picks free?
Yes. Every pick on Bookie Bullies is free. No signup, no paywall. Full model output (probability, and EV plus recommended stake where a price is published) is visible on every pick page.