Boston Red Sox Run Line at -141
Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Boston Red Sox. Played at Fenway Park. Starting pitchers: Jesus Luzardo for PHI, Ranger Suarez for BOS. Market: Run Line. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +3.60
- Bullpen quality: -0.53
- Platoon edge: +0.40
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Boston Red Sox pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of -1.02 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. Bullpen quality favored the away side by 0.51 expected runs.
Other picks from 2026-05-14
- Vegas Golden Knights Moneyline Won
- Buffalo Sabres Moneyline Lost
- Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline Won
- Washington Nationals Moneyline Lost
- Cincinnati Reds Run Line Won