Cincinnati Reds Run Line at -141
Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Philadelphia Phillies. Played at Citizens Bank Park. Starting pitchers: Nick Lodolo for CIN, Andrew Painter for PHI. Market: Run Line. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +4.05
- Bullpen quality: +0.65
- Platoon edge: +0.44
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Cincinnati Reds pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of +0.92 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. Bullpen quality favored the home side by 0.72 expected runs.