Chicago Cubs Run Line at +159
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Chicago Cubs. Played at Wrigley Field. Starting pitchers: Brandon Sproat for MIL, Shota Imanaga for CHC. Market: Run Line. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +3.46
- Bullpen quality: -0.23
- Platoon edge: -0.40
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Chicago Cubs pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of +1.32 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. Bullpen quality favored the away side by 0.25 expected runs.
Other picks from 2026-05-18
- Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline Lost
- Dallas Wings Moneyline Won
- Portland Fire Moneyline Won
- Miami Marlins Run Line Won
- Cincinnati Reds Run Line Lost