Detroit Tigers Run Line at +159
Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Cleveland Guardians and the Detroit Tigers. Played at Comerica Park. Starting pitchers: Parker Messick for CLE, Keider Montero for DET. Market: Run Line. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +4.16
- Outs Above Average (defense): -0.62
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 40.9% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Detroit Tigers pick cashed. The model's edge on this matchup played out as projected. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of -1.18 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 40.9% chance. Our model had it at 54.2%.
Other picks from 2026-05-19
- Phoenix Mercury Moneyline Lost
- Baltimore Orioles Run Line Lost
- Washington Nationals Run Line Won
- Kansas City Royals Run Line Lost
- San Diego Padres Run Line Won