Detroit Tigers Moneyline at -131
Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Cleveland Guardians and the Detroit Tigers. Played at Comerica Park. Starting pitchers: Joey Cantillo for CLE, Casey Mize for DET. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +3.64
- Outs Above Average (defense): -0.66
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 50.4% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Detroit Tigers pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball (and probability) both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of +0.38 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 50.4% chance. Our model had it at 0.0%. Closing line value: -2.59pp (below the closing market). Positive CLV is the leading indicator long-term, regardless of this single result.
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