St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline
St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Cincinnati Reds. Played at Great American Ball Park. Starting pitchers: Kyle Leahy for STL, Chase Petty for CIN. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +4.77
- Framing edge: -0.26
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 47.0% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The St. Louis Cardinals pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of -1.35 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 47.0% chance. Our model had it at 0.0%.
Other picks from 2026-05-23
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- Baltimore Orioles Total (Over/Under) Lost
- San Francisco Giants Total (Over/Under) Lost
- Boston Red Sox Total (Over/Under) Lost