Cincinnati Reds Moneyline
Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Washington Nationals. Played at Nationals Park. Starting pitchers: Chase Petty for CIN, Cade Cavalli for WSH. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +5.20
- Bullpen quality: -0.24
- Rolling wOBA (offense form): +0.34
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 39.0% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Cincinnati Reds pick cashed. The model's edge on this matchup played out as projected. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of +1.72 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. Bullpen quality favored the away side by 0.25 expected runs. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 39.0% chance. Our model had it at 55.5%.
Other picks from 2026-08-07
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML Won
- Philadelphia Phillies ML Won
- Atlanta Braves ML Won
- Miami Marlins ML Won
- Boston Red Sox ML Lost