New York Yankees Moneyline
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the New York Yankees and the Baltimore Orioles. Played at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Starting pitchers: Carlos Rodon for NYY, Shane Baz for BAL. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +4.18
- Outs Above Average (defense): -0.44
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 45.1% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The New York Yankees pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of +1.88 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 45.1% chance. Our model had it at 51.3%.
Other picks from 2026-08-18
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- Philadelphia Phillies ML Lost
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- St. Louis Cardinals ML Lost
- Toronto Blue Jays ML Lost