San Diego Padres Moneyline
San Diego Padres at New York Mets · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the San Diego Padres and the New York Mets. Played at Citi Field. Starting pitchers: Robbie Ray for SD, Zac Thornton for NYM. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +5.18
- Bullpen quality: -0.31
- Platoon edge: -0.20
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 49.5% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The San Diego Padres pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of -0.95 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. Bullpen quality favored the away side by 0.31 expected runs. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 49.5% chance. Our model had it at 54.2%.
Other picks from 2026-08-18
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- Pittsburgh Pirates ML Won
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- St. Louis Cardinals ML Lost