Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Milwaukee Brewers. Played at American Family Field. Starting pitchers: Chase Burns for CIN, Robert Gasser for MIL. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +5.20
- Bullpen quality: +0.47
- Framing edge: +0.50
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 58.5% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Milwaukee Brewers pick cashed. The model's edge on this matchup played out as projected. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of -4.17 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. Bullpen quality favored the home side by 0.44 expected runs. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 58.5% chance. Our model had it at 56.0%.
Other picks from 2026-09-13
- Detroit Tigers ML Won
- Washington Nationals ML Lost
- New York Yankees ML Lost
- Atlanta Braves ML Won
- Toronto Blue Jays ML Won