MarcDuck is the publisher of Bookie Bullies and built its model. Every pick on this site comes from that model. It surfaces edges, picks publish automatically, and MarcDuck audits the results.
Every MLB pick goes through a two-stage process. First, the AI model combines about two dozen inputs per game: starting pitcher quality, bullpen quality and fatigue, platoon (handedness) splits, catcher framing, defensive Outs Above Average, dynamic per-team home-field advantage, BABIP/LOB% regression flags, velocity drop, and more. The first-inning model adds park, weather and home-plate umpire factors. The model produces win probability, expected value, and a recommended stake.
Then the picks publish automatically, about four times a day. MarcDuck audits the results against the public record and tunes the model when it drifts. MarcDuck built the model; the model makes the picks.
Every staked pick is graded and displayed publicly at /track-record.html. As of the latest grading: 191 graded picks at 43.5% hit rate. Of those, 173 picks have full Kelly tracking (real odds + non-zero unit), producing -17.08 units and -8.2% ROI at recommended 1/8-Kelly stakes. The track record updates daily and includes splits by sport, pick type, confidence tier, and rolling 7/14/30/90-day windows.
Bookie Bullies publishes it because short-term wins and losses are mostly noise; only a long record says anything about skill.
The model is documented at /methodology.html. The model uses a Skellam distribution (the difference of two Poisson run counts) for MLB moneyline probabilities and a Negative Binomial for run totals, because real run totals are overdispersed relative to Poisson.
Moneyline probabilities blend model output with the market price, a Statcast ensemble and the latest tracked line at base weights that shift toward the market when the model and market disagree sharply, then pass through Platt calibration. Stakes use 1/8-Kelly with variance adjustment via the Bayesian uncertainty band shown next to each pick.
Picks are published for entertainment and informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every pick can be wrong, and many are. We are not a sportsbook, broker, or registered investment adviser.
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Questions or feedback? Email hello@bookiebullies.com.
Last updated: 2026-10-09