Bookie Bullies publishes free MLB, NFL and college football picks by MarcDuck, made with the help of AI software. MLB moneyline picks come with model confidence, expected value, and a probability blended with the market moneyline. First-inning reads come with a model probability and a conviction tier, with no price or expected value. The model surfaces the edges; picks publish automatically, and MarcDuck audits the results.
Every pick on this site comes from a model built and tuned by MarcDuck. The AI ingests team and player data (starting pitcher FIP/xFIP, bullpen quality, park factors, weather, umpire tendencies, lineup splits, recent form, etc.), models the run-scoring distribution, and produces a win probability for each side compared to the market. Picks publish automatically. MarcDuck audits the results and tunes the model when the record shows a problem.
Bookie Bullies's model is described on the methodology page. No tout hype. MLB moneyline and first-inning picks are logged and graded.
Models are probabilistic. Individual picks lose. Over a large sample of positive-EV bets, a well-calibrated model's edge compounds. Bookie Bullies publishes graded results and a calibration table on the Track Record page, so accuracy can be audited openly.
Our sabermetric model weighs factors per game including FIP, BABIP regression, Pythagenpat win expectation, park factors, weather, umpire run tendencies, bullpen quality, and lineup wOBA vs starter handedness. The full list is on the methodology page. Picks publish automatically from a model MarcDuck built and tunes, and he audits the results.
The Track Record page counts every staked pick we have published, win or loss, broken out by sport, market type and confidence tier. First-inning reads carry no stake, so they are not part of it. See the Track Record page for the current numbers.
MLB, college football and the NFL. MLB runs from late March through the postseason, with first-inning markets as the flagship product. NFL picks go up weekly on /nfl/: a straight-up winner with a win % for every game, plus a secondary spread lean, each frozen at kickoff and graded in public. College football runs August through January. The /college-football/ page lists a spread pick for every FBS game. Its cover confidence sits near 50%, because our spread model has not beaten the closing line. Over/under picks are paused while our totals number is re-tested. Each sport has its own factor weights calibrated against historical results.
Yes. All AI sports picks on Bookie Bullies are free with no signup, no paywall, no email required. Updated four times daily as lineups and odds firm up.