Bookie BulliesNHL / Picks
Moneyline: the likeliest winner and its chance, from the sportsbook moneyline with the house cut removed. In our test of 2,650 games that formula picked the winner 58.1% of the time, better than our own team ratings in every season. A pick at 80% or more is marked LOCK in green and gold; in hockey that is rare, because even big favorites lose about one game in three. Puck line: the likelier result at plus or minus 1.5 goals, house cut removed. Projected score: the expected goal margin split around the posted total. All times Pacific.
Built from the picks above, one leg per game. "To hit" multiplies each leg's chance. "Pays about" multiplies the legs' prices (spreads at standard -110). When the payout is shorter than fair, the book keeps the difference: every parlay carries the house cut once per leg. Keep stakes small.
- FLA to winWPG @ FLA · 66.4% · -225
- SEA to winSEA @ CGY · 51.1% · -115
How we picked the formula.
We tested every way we had to pick NHL winners on about 2,650 games from 2024-25 to now, with the opening and closing moneylines from ESPN's sportsbook feeds. Lower prediction error is better.
| Formula | Picked the winner | Prediction error |
|---|---|---|
| Closing moneyline, house cut removed | 58.1% | 0.669 |
| Opening moneyline | 57.2% | 0.672 |
| Our goal-differential ratings | 53 to 59% | worse every season |
| Always the home team | 54.3% | 0.690 |
Nothing we added beat the closing moneyline by more than chance: not our ratings, not back-to-backs, not the line move. So the picks above use the market's own number, and we say so. Two leads we track but do not bet: the rested team against a team on a back-to-back returned +3.1% over 608 games, and home underdogs came close to break-even. Neither is proven. A team on a back-to-back is tagged in red.
One data note: ESPN's 2023-24 DraftKings hockey moneylines add up to impossible prices, so that season is left out of every number on this page.