Tampa Bay Rays Run Line at +130
Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Miami Marlins and the Tampa Bay Rays. Played at Tropicana Field. Starting pitchers: Sandy Alcantara for MIA, Nick Martinez for TB. Market: Run Line. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +4.43
- Bullpen quality: -0.21
- Platoon edge: +0.52
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Tampa Bay Rays pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of +0.02 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. Bullpen quality favored the away side by 0.25 expected runs.
Other picks from 2026-05-16
- Montreal Canadiens Moneyline Lost
- Arizona Diamondbacks Run Line Lost
- Chicago White Sox Run Line Won
- Minnesota Twins Run Line Won
- Houston Astros Run Line Won