Philadelphia Phillies Run Line at +126
Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Philadelphia Phillies. Played at Citizens Bank Park. Starting pitchers: Chase Burns for CIN, Jesus Luzardo for PHI. Market: Run Line. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +2.58
- Bullpen quality: +0.65
- Platoon edge: +0.48
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Philadelphia Phillies pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of +0.71 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. Bullpen quality favored the home side by 0.71 expected runs.
Other picks from 2026-05-19
- Phoenix Mercury Moneyline Lost
- Baltimore Orioles Run Line Lost
- Washington Nationals Run Line Won
- Kansas City Royals Run Line Lost
- San Diego Padres Run Line Won