Convert American or decimal odds to implied probability and payout. Implied probability is the win rate the book's price assumes. Compare to your model's probability to find edge.
Convert American or decimal odds to implied probability. Implied probability is the win rate the book's price assumes. Compare it to your model's probability to identify edge.
For no-vig probability across both sides of a two-way market, use the devig calculator.
Every odds price corresponds to a probability the book is assuming. -150 implies the book thinks the side wins 60% of the time. +150 implies 40%. Convert to compare your model's probability to the book's belief.
Implied probability includes the book's vig. The true (no-vig) probability the market thinks is fair is lower. Example: at -110/-110, both sides imply 52.4%, summing to 104.8%. The 4.8% is vig. Divide each side by 1.048 to get the no-vig probability: 50.0% each. Use the devig calculator for two-way markets.
Your bet has edge when your model's probability exceeds the no-vig market probability. If your model says 62% and the no-vig market is 58%, you have 4 percentage points of edge. Stake by Kelly criterion to size appropriately.
-300 → ~75% implied · payout $133 / profit $33 per $100-200 → ~67% implied · payout $150 / profit $50 per $100-150 → ~60% implied · payout $167 / profit $67 per $100-110 → ~52% implied · payout $191 / profit $91 per $100+100 → ~50% implied · payout $200 / profit $100 per $100+150 → ~40% implied · payout $250 / profit $150 per $100+200 → ~33% implied · payout $300 / profit $200 per $100