Best bets and Locks are our highest-conviction MLB picks each day — 5-star plays where the model strongly disagrees with the market AND has positive edge. Typically 0-3 Locks per slate. Days with no Locks, we say so honestly rather than fabricate edge.
Lock criteria: probability ≥ 58% AND edge ≥ 4% over the de-vigged market closing implied probability. Locks get a gold-bordered card on the homepage and the largest recommended stake at 1/8-Kelly with variance adjustment for our prob_sigma uncertainty band.
Every game below is analyzed by our model. Confidence is the model's internal rating; expected value (EV) is the edge over the de-vigged market closing line. Picks with positive EV are sized at 1/8-Kelly with variance-adjusted stake reduction.
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates
1:35 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles
1:35 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays
1:37 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Tampa Bay Rays
1:40 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers
1:40 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets
1:40 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Guardians
1:40 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers
2:10 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Colorado Rockies @ Minnesota Twins
2:10 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox
2:10 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Miami Marlins @ St. Louis Cardinals
2:15 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels
3:15 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants
4:05 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres
4:10 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox
7:20 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
How are the Best MLB Bets Today chosen?
Picks are made by MarcDuck with AI assistance. The model weighs up to 35 factors per game (FIP/xFIP, bullpen quality, park factors by handedness, weather, lineup splits, line movement, recent form). MarcDuck reviews and formulates the final pick before it goes on the card.
Are Best MLB Bets Today updated daily?
Yes, twice daily. The morning run at 8 AM Pacific grades yesterday and regenerates today's card. The afternoon run at 4 PM Pacific builds tomorrow's card once starting pitchers are confirmed.
How accurate is the model?
Public track record: 10 graded picks at 60.0% hit rate. Kelly-tracked subset (picks with full odds + stake data): 8 picks, +1.00 units, +3.3% ROI. Updated daily on the Track Record page. We don't hide negative results — every pick is logged and graded honestly.
Are these MLB picks free?
Yes. Every MLB pick on this site is free. No signup, no paywall, no email required. Full model output (pick, confidence, expected value, moneyline, edge) is visible to anyone.