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The MLB run line is the +1.5 / -1.5 spread. It pays close to even money on heavy favorites and gives underdogs cover when they lose by 1. Here's how to read it and where the value hides.
The run line is MLB's standard spread, almost always set at ±1.5 runs. The favorite at -1.5 must win by 2 or more runs to cover. The underdog at +1.5 covers by winning outright OR losing by exactly 1 run. Run line bets pay close to even money on most matchups (typically -110 to +130).
-1.5 at +100 or better. If you think the favorite wins by 2+ more than 50% of the time, the run line at +100 is +EV.+1.5 at -180 often pays better than the moneyline.+1.5 dogs.+1.5 dogs hit more often there.The run line and moneyline are inversely priced for the favorite. If a team is -200 on the moneyline, their -1.5 run line is usually around +105. If you think they win by 2+ more than 49% of the time, the run line beats the moneyline.
Bookie Bullies stopped publishing MLB run line picks in September 2026. If you bet it yourself, the favorite at -1.5 covers when it wins by 2 or more, P(margin ≥ 2), and the underdog at +1.5 covers when it wins outright or loses by exactly 1, P(dog margin ≥ -1). Compare your probability for that outcome with the de-vigged run line price.
Bookie Bullies no longer publishes MLB run line picks. For today's published MLB reads, see the first-inning board and today's MLB picks.
The run line is MLB's standard spread, almost always set at ±1.5 runs. The favorite at -1.5 must win by 2 or more runs to cover. The underdog at +1.5 covers by winning outright or losing by exactly 1 run. Run line bets pay close to even money on most matchups (typically -110 to +130).
-1.5 means the team must win the game by 2 or more runs for the bet to cash. It's the spread version of a favorite. Pricing is usually positive (+100 to +150) because winning by 2+ is harder than just winning.
When the team is a heavy favorite (-200 or more on the moneyline). Instead of paying steep favorite juice, taking -1.5 at +100 to +150 is often higher EV if you believe the team wins by 2+ at least half the time. Low-scoring games leave less room for a 2-run margin, so -1.5 is harder to cover in pitcher-friendly parks.
Bookie Bullies stopped publishing MLB run line picks in September 2026. Its run line code uses a normal approximation of the run margin, not the Skellam distribution. For your own bets: the favorite at -1.5 covers when it wins by 2 or more, and the underdog at +1.5 covers when it wins outright or loses by exactly 1. Compare that probability against the de-vigged market price.