The MLB run line is the +1.5 / -1.5 spread. It pays close to even money on heavy favorites and gives underdogs cover when they lose by 1. Here's how to read it and where the value hides.
The run line is MLB's standard spread, almost always set at ±1.5 runs. The favorite at -1.5 must win by 2 or more runs to cover. The underdog at +1.5 covers by winning outright OR losing by exactly 1 run. Run line bets pay close to even money on most matchups (typically -110 to +130).
-1.5 at +100 or better. If you think the favorite wins by 2+ at least 50% of the time, the run line is +EV.+1.5 at -180 often pays better than the moneyline.+1.5 dogs.+1.5 dogs hit more often there.The run line and moneyline are inversely priced for the favorite. If a team is -200 on the moneyline, their -1.5 run line is usually around +105. If you think they win by 2+ more than 49% of the time, the run line beats the moneyline.
For run line picks, we use the Skellam distribution (correct family for integer-run differences) with a correlation correction (home and away runs are positively correlated, ~ρ=0.12). The model decomposes our predicted total + margin into per-team Poisson means, then computes P(margin > +1) for the underdog or P(margin > +2) for the favorite at -1.5. We compare to the de-vigged market run line price; positive edges fire as picks.
Today's full set of MLB run line picks with model probabilities, EV, and recommended stakes is at /mlb-run-line-picks/.