● MLB RUN LINE PICKS BY MARCDUCK · AI-ASSISTED
MLB Run Line Picks Today
MLB run line picks (also called "spreads") put the favorite at -1.5 and the underdog at +1.5. Favorites have to win by 2+ runs to cover; underdogs win the bet just by losing by 1 or winning outright. Our AI-assisted model finds run-line value when it disagrees with how the moneyline prices a 1-run vs multi-run game.
BY MARCDUCK
AI-ASSISTED
MLB RUN LINE PICKS
How These Picks Are Made
We compute every pitching, lineup, bullpen, and park factor that affects margin distribution, then compare to the market's posted run line. When the model thinks a favorite is more likely to blow out than the market implies, we take -1.5. When the underdog has real upset equity, we take +1.5.
Today's MLB Run Line Picks
Every game below is analyzed by our model. Confidence is the model's internal rating; expected value (EV) is the edge over the de-vigged market closing line. Picks with positive EV are sized at 1/8-Kelly with variance-adjusted stake reduction.
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
1:35 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies
1:35 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves
1:35 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
1:37 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers
1:40 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins
1:40 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Athletics @ Houston Astros
2:10 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins
2:10 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals
2:15 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers
2:35 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies
3:10 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks
3:15 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers
4:10 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
New York Mets @ San Diego Padres
4:10 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs
8:30 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Frequently Asked Questions
How are the MLB Run Line Picks chosen?
Picks are made by MarcDuck with AI assistance. The model weighs up to 35 factors per game (FIP/xFIP, bullpen quality, park factors by handedness, weather, lineup splits, line movement, recent form). MarcDuck reviews and formulates the final pick before it goes on the card.
Are MLB Run Line Picks updated daily?
Yes, twice daily. The morning run at 8 AM Pacific grades yesterday and regenerates today's card. The afternoon run at 4 PM Pacific builds tomorrow's card once starting pitchers are confirmed.
How accurate is the model?
Public track record: 9 graded picks at 55.6% hit rate. Kelly-tracked subset (picks with full odds + stake data): 7 picks, +0.94 units, +3.1% ROI. Updated daily on the Track Record page. We don't hide negative results — every pick is logged and graded honestly.
Are these MLB picks free?
Yes. Every MLB pick on this site is free. No signup, no paywall, no email required. Full model output (pick, confidence, expected value, moneyline, edge) is visible to anyone.
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