● MLB RUN LINE PICKS BY MARCDUCK · AI-ASSISTED
MLB Run Line Picks Today
MLB run line picks (also called "spreads") put the favorite at -1.5 and the underdog at +1.5. Favorites have to win by 2+ runs to cover; underdogs win the bet just by losing by 1 or winning outright. Our AI-assisted model finds run-line value when it disagrees with how the moneyline prices a 1-run vs multi-run game.
BY MARCDUCK
AI-ASSISTED
MLB RUN LINE PICKS
How These Picks Are Made
We compute every pitching, lineup, bullpen, and park factor that affects margin distribution, then compare to the market's posted run line. When the model thinks a favorite is more likely to blow out than the market implies, we take -1.5. When the underdog has real upset equity, we take +1.5.
Today's MLB Run Line Picks
Every game below is analyzed by our model. Confidence is the model's internal rating; expected value (EV) is the edge over the de-vigged market closing line. Picks with positive EV are sized at 1/8-Kelly with variance-adjusted stake reduction.
Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates
12:35 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds
12:40 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets
1:10 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins
1:40 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers
1:40 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
2:10 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
St. Louis Cardinals @ Athletics
3:05 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox
6:45 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves
7:15 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox
7:40 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
10:10 PM EDT
Model analysis in progress
Frequently Asked Questions
How are the MLB Run Line Picks chosen?
Picks are made by MarcDuck with AI assistance. The model weighs up to 35 factors per game (FIP/xFIP, bullpen quality, park factors by handedness, weather, lineup splits, line movement, recent form). MarcDuck reviews and formulates the final pick before it goes on the card.
Are MLB Run Line Picks updated daily?
Yes, twice daily. The morning run at 8 AM Pacific grades yesterday and regenerates today's card. The afternoon run at 4 PM Pacific builds tomorrow's card once starting pitchers are confirmed.
How accurate is the model?
Public track record: 251 graded picks, 54.9% hit rate, +8.78 units, +9.9% ROI on recommended 1/8-Kelly stakes. Updated daily on the Track Record page. We don't hide negative results — every pick is logged and graded honestly.
Are these MLB picks free?
Yes. Every MLB pick on this site is free. No signup, no paywall, no email required. Full model output (pick, confidence, expected value, moneyline, edge) is visible to anyone.
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