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wRC+ (weighted Runs Created Plus) is FanGraphs' park- and league-adjusted offensive metric. 100 equals league average; 150 means 50% better than league. wRC+ is the sharpest single-number offensive stat for MLB betting.
wRC+ builds on wOBA (weighted On-Base Average) by adjusting for park and league environment, then scaling so 100 equals league average. The formula essentially converts wOBA to runs via linear weights, divides by league wRC, adjusts for park, and multiplies by 100.
Where OPS+ uses the additive OPS shortcut under the hood, wRC+ uses run-value weights all the way down. That makes wRC+ technically more accurate than OPS+.
wRC+ is the single best summary of a hitter's offensive value. It captures everything OPS+ does (park adjustment, league adjustment) but with sharper weights. For comparing lineups across teams, eras, and parks, wRC+ is the gold standard.
Sharp models use wRC+ for stable long-term hitter evaluation; xwOBA for recent contact-quality signal; and recent wOBA for hot/cold streaks. wRC+ anchors the baseline.
wRC+ and OPS+ correlate very highly (0.992 for batting-title qualifiers since 1998, per Baseball Prospectus). The differences:
For most betting analysis, OPS+ and wRC+ are interchangeable. wRC+ is the sharper default.
Lineup-aggregate wRC+ (average across the starting nine) is a useful offensive read. Because wRC+ is scaled to league runs per plate appearance, a lineup at 120 projects to create about 20% more runs per plate appearance than an average one, before tonight's park and opposing pitcher are factored in.
Pay attention to PLATOON wRC+ (vs LHP / vs RHP) separately. A team with 130 wRC+ vs RHP but 95 wRC+ vs LHP is a totally different offense depending on who's pitching.
wRC+ is not an input in the current model. Its offensive inputs are team wOBA split by the opposing starter's handedness and confirmed-lineup xwOBA.
Theory is one thing, using the concept on tonight's slate is the value. These hubs are the practical application: