Free MLB & NBA Picks by MarcDuck, 67 AI-Assisted Predictions for Saturday, May 9, 2026

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

7 plays · best → worst

01 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Mets F5 First 5 Innings

NYM Mets @ ARI Diamondbacks · Final · Clay Holmes vs Merrill Kelly
WHY
- FIP edge +2.56 — your starter projects better
- SP career vs opp team +0.72 R
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.75 R
WIN % 56.8%±10.0%

EV +4.2%

STAKE 0.6u

-120
02 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Marlins F5 First 5 Innings

WSH Nationals @ MIA Marlins · Final · Zack Littell vs Janson Junk
WHY
- FIP edge +1.57 — your starter projects better
- Bullpen quality edge +0.39 R
- Defense (OAA) +0.26 R
WIN % 56.6%±5.1%

EV +3.8%

STAKE 0.6u

-120
03 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Blue Jays F5 First 5 Innings

LAA Angels @ TOR Blue Jays · Final · Jack Kochanowicz vs Trey Yesavage
WHY
- FIP edge +3.80 — your starter projects better
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.68 R
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.46 R
WIN % 54.0%±4.0%

EV +-1.0%

STAKE 0.0u

-120
04 ★★★★★ LOCK
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NBA Lakers +9.5 Spread

OKC Thunder @ LAL Lakers · Final · Net +9.5 · Net +2.8
WHY
- Top-10 offense (117.5 ORtg)
WIN % 47.1%±7.4%

EV +-10.1%

STAKE 0.0u

-110
05 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB F5 Over 5.5 F5 Total

SEA Mariners @ CHW White Sox · Final · Luis Castillo vs Anthony Kay
WHY
- FIP edge +1.72 — your starter projects better
- SP career vs opp team +0.47 R
- Catcher framing +0.50 R
WIN % 46.6%±3.8%

EV +-11.0%

STAKE 0.0u

-110
06 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Yankees ML Moneyline

NYY Yankees @ MIL Brewers · Final/10 · Cam Schlittler vs Kyle Harrison
WHY
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +1.20 R
- SP career vs opp team +0.87 R
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.67 R
WIN % 66.6%±6.4%

EV +-11.9%

STAKE 0.0u

-136
07 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Phillies F5 First 5 Innings

COL Rockies @ PHI Phillies · Final · Kyle Freeland vs Aaron Nola
WHY
- FIP edge +1.58 — your starter projects better
- SP career vs opp team +0.70 R
- Catcher framing +0.56 R
WIN % 46.8%

EV +-14.2%

STAKE 0.0u

-120

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

Showing 12 of 12

08 ★★★★☆ LOCK
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MLB F5 Over 5.5 F5 Total

ATL Braves @ LAD Dodgers · Final · Spencer Strider vs Blake Snell
WHY
- Catcher framing +0.49 R
WIN % 55.4%±7.3%

EV +5.7%

STAKE 0.8u

-110
09 ★★★★☆
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MLB Pirates ML Moneyline

PIT Pirates @ SF Giants · Bot 9th · Braxton Ashcraft vs Landen Roupp
WHY
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.69 R
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.32 R
- Recent form 5-5 (last 10)
WIN % 59.5%±2.1%

EV +-15.0%

STAKE 0.0u

-110
10 ★★★☆☆
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MLB Athletics ML Moneyline

ATH Athletics @ BAL Orioles · Final · Aaron Civale vs Shane Baz
WHY
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.81 R
- Recent form 6-4 (last 10)
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.31 R
WIN % 53.7%±1.5%

EV +-17.2%

STAKE 0.3u

-126
11 ★★★☆☆

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NHL Avalanche ML Moneyline

COL Colorado Avalanche @ MIN Minnesota Wild · Final · 3.68/2.48 · 3.32/2.93

WIN % 55.9%

EV +-18.9%

STAKE 0.0u

-130
12 ★★☆☆☆

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MLB Twins ML Moneyline

MIN Twins @ CLE Guardians · Final/11 · Joe Ryan vs Tanner Bibee

WIN % 52.5%

EV +-19.2%

STAKE 0.3u

-127
13 ★★★★☆
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MLB Red Sox ML Moneyline

TB Rays @ BOS Red Sox · Postponed · Nick Martinez vs Payton Tolle
WHY
- FIP edge +1.22 — your starter projects better
- Defense (OAA) +0.58 R
- SP career vs opp team +0.37 R
WIN % 61.0%±2.0%

EV +-20.4%

STAKE 0.0u

-143
14 ★★★★☆
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MLB Cubs ML Moneyline

CHC Cubs @ TEX Rangers · Final · Edward Cabrera vs Jack Leiter
WHY
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.76 R
- Defense (OAA) +0.56 R
- Recent form 9-1 (last 10)
WIN % 59.6%±4.8%

EV +-21.3%

STAKE 0.0u

-130
15 ★★★★☆
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MLB Royals ML Moneyline

DET Tigers @ KC Royals · Final · Burch Smith vs Michael Wacha
WHY
- Defense (OAA) +0.66 R
- Recent form 7-3 (last 10)
WIN % 57.7%±2.0%

EV +-23.3%

STAKE 0.0u

-130
16 ★★★★☆
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MLB Reds ML Moneyline

HOU Astros @ CIN Reds · Final · Spencer Arrighetti vs Chase Burns
WHY
- FIP edge +1.27 — your starter projects better
- SP career vs opp team +0.64 R
WIN % 61.5%±2.4%

EV +-23.9%

STAKE 0.0u

-163
17 ★★★★☆
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NBA Cavaliers ML Moneyline

DET Pistons @ CLE Cavaliers · Final · Net +9.6 · Net +5.4
WHY
- Top-10 offense (120.7 ORtg)
WIN % 60.0%±3.4%

EV +-25.0%

STAKE 0.0u

-192
18 ★★★★☆
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MLB Padres ML Moneyline

STL Cardinals @ SD Padres · Final · Dustin May vs Randy Vasquez
WHY
- Bullpen quality edge +0.72 R
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.24 R
WIN % 58.5%±3.0%

EV +-25.2%

STAKE 0.0u

-144
19 ★★★★☆

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NHL Hurricanes ML Moneyline

CAR Carolina Hurricanes @ PHI Philadelphia Flyers · Final · 3.61/2.93 · 3.05/2.96

WIN % 57.2%±7.0%

EV +-29.4%

STAKE 0.0u

-198

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model

— 01

Pitching & Matchups

MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.

— 02

Market Read

We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.

— 03

Pace & Environment

MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).

— 04

Fatigue & Availability

MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.

Today's/Picks

THE LOCKS

THE CARD

Today's Card

By the / Numbers

Leader/board

How We / Pick

MLB Picks by Type

By Team — AL East / Central

By Team — AL West / NL East

By Team — NL Central / West

About + Methodology