Bookie Bullies
Bookie BulliesMLB + NBA · Daily Picks
Heads-up Picks made by MarcDuck with AI assistance, weighing up to 35 factors per game. Predictions are not 100% correct. This is NOT financial advice. 21+ entertainment only. Full disclaimer.
Today's Card · Locked In

Today's/Picks

By MarcDuck · Curated with AI assistance, the human formulates every pick
MON · APR 20 · 2026 Week 4 · Regular Season
First Pitch Final
Stake Calculator 1u = 1% of bankroll · 1/8-Kelly recommendations
$ bankroll
1u = $10

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

2 plays · best → worst
  1. 01 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Phillies F5 First 5 Innings
    COL Rockies @ PHI Phillies · Final · Tomoyuki Sugano vs Cristopher Sanchez
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.91 — your starter projects better
    • Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.71 R
    • Catcher framing +0.56 R
    WIN % 55.1%
    EV +1.0%
    STAKE 0.1u
    -120
  2. 02 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Twins F5 First 5 Innings
    MIN Twins @ CLE Guardians · Final · Andrew Morris vs Gavin Williams
    WHY
    • Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.81 R
    WIN % 44.6%±2.7%
    EV +-18.3%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -120

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

Showing 17 of 17
Filter by Sport
Market
Model Confidence
  1. 03 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Tigers F5 First 5 Innings
    DET Tigers @ KC Royals · Final · Brenan Hanifee vs Noah Cameron
    WHY
    • FIP edge +0.70 — your starter projects better
    WIN % 56.9%±4.9%
    EV +4.4%
    STAKE 0.7u
    -120
  2. 04 ★☆☆☆☆
    @
    MLB Under 8.5 Total
    ATH Athletics @ BAL Orioles · Final · Luis Severino vs Keegan Akin
    WHY
    • Our SP hot streak (last 3 starts) +0.60 R
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.33 R
    • Recent form 5-5 (last 10)
    WIN % 52.6%±1.0%
    EV +0.3%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110
  3. 05 ★☆☆☆☆
    @
    MLB Over 9.5 Total
    NYY Yankees @ MIL Brewers · Final · Carlos Rodon vs Logan Henderson
    WHY
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.70 R
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.15 R
    WIN % 52.2%±2.1%
    EV +-0.4%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110
  4. 06 ★★☆☆☆
    @
    NHL Ducks ML Moneyline
    VGK Vegas Golden Knights @ ANA Anaheim Ducks · In Progress · 3.23/3.05 · 3.33/3.51
    WIN % 52.4%±7.9%
    EV +-13.8%
    STAKE 0.3u
    -125
  5. 07 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Pirates ML Moneyline
    PIT Pirates @ SF Giants · Final/12 · Bubba Chandler vs Tyler Mahle
    WHY
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.76 R
    • Recent form 6-4 (last 10)
    WIN % 53.0%±4.1%
    EV +-17.8%
    STAKE 0.2u
    -126
  6. 08 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Mets ML Moneyline
    NYM Mets @ ARI Diamondbacks · Final · Huascar Brazoban vs Eduardo Rodriguez
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.77 — your starter projects better
    • SP career vs opp team +0.73 R
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.20 R
    WIN % 55.0%±4.1%
    EV +-18.0%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -115
  7. 09 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Astros ML Moneyline
    HOU Astros @ CIN Reds · Final · Kai-Wei Teng vs Andrew Abbott
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.32 — your starter projects better
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.72 R
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.33 R
    WIN % 53.7%±6.0%
    EV +-19.4%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -121
  8. 10 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Mariners ML Moneyline
    SEA Mariners @ CHW White Sox · Final · Logan Gilbert vs Davis Martin
    WHY
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.60 R
    • Catcher framing +0.50 R
    WIN % 59.0%±2.0%
    EV +-21.7%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -141
  9. 11 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Rangers ML Moneyline
    CHC Cubs @ TEX Rangers · Final · Jameson Taillon vs Jacob deGrom
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.50 — your starter projects better
    • SP career vs opp team +0.53 R
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.19 R
    WIN % 56.9%±2.9%
    EV +-21.7%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -123
  10. 12 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Dodgers ML Moneyline
    ATL Braves @ LAD Dodgers · Final · Bryce Elder vs Justin Wrobleski
    WHY
    • SP career vs opp team +1.00 R
    • Catcher framing +0.49 R
    WIN % 59.5%±2.8%
    EV +-22.5%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -143
  11. 13 ★★★☆☆
    @
    NBA Knicks ML Moneyline
    NYK Knicks @ PHI 76ers · Final · Net +0.0 · Net +0.8
    WIN % 53.4%
    EV +-22.8%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -125
  12. 14 ★★★☆☆
    @
    NHL Canadiens ML Moneyline
    BUF Buffalo Sabres @ MTL Montréal Canadiens · Final · 3.51/2.94 · 3.45/3.12
    WIN % 54.6%±0.7%
    EV +-23.5%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -135
  13. 15 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Marlins ML Moneyline
    WSH Nationals @ MIA Marlins · Final · Cade Cavalli vs Sandy Alcantara
    WHY
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.43 R
    • Defense (OAA) +0.26 R
    WIN % 56.5%±2.5%
    EV +-24.6%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -137
  14. 16 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Red Sox ML Moneyline
    TB Rays @ BOS Red Sox · Final · Nick Martinez vs Payton Tolle
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.22 — your starter projects better
    • Defense (OAA) +0.58 R
    WIN % 58.6%±3.6%
    EV +-25.2%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -156
  15. 17 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Padres ML Moneyline
    STL Cardinals @ SD Padres · Final/10 · Kyle Leahy vs Walker Buehler
    WHY
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.72 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.24 R
    WIN % 55.7%±3.2%
    EV +-25.7%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -137
  16. 18 ★★☆☆☆
    @
    MLB Blue Jays ML Moneyline
    LAA Angels @ TOR Blue Jays · Final · Jose Soriano vs Spencer Miles
    WHY
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.68 R
    • Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.60 R
    • SP career vs opp team +0.39 R
    WIN % 51.9%±3.8%
    EV +-27.0%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -118
  17. 19 ★★★★☆
    @
    NBA Timberwolves ML Moneyline
    SAS Spurs @ MIN Timberwolves · Final · Net +0.0 · Net +1.4
    WIN % 58.1%±7.8%
    EV +-29.4%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -198

Today's Card

Showing 13 of 13 · 0-0 today
Season Snapshot

By the / Numbers

Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.

Today's Card
57
50 MLB · 3 NBA
Season Record
143-120-5
54.4% win rate since 2026-04-22
Lock Pick Win %
34-15
69.4% on locks (49 graded)
Last 10
4-6
last 10 graded
Streak
L3
current run
Confidence Avg
54%
model blend

Leader/board

Top 8 Cappers · Last 30 Days
#
Capper
W-L
Win%
Units
ROI
● Current Streak
W5
5 IN A ROW · +$623 ON L5
Win Loss Push

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model
— 01
Pitching & Matchups
MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.
— 02
Market Read
We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.
— 03
Pace & Environment
MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).
— 04
Fatigue & Availability
MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.

MLB Picks by Type

By Team — AL East / Central

By Team — AL West / NL East

By Team — NL Central / West

About + Methodology