Free MLB & NBA Picks by MarcDuck, 24 AI-Assisted Predictions for Monday, May 11, 2026

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

4 plays · best → worst

01 ★★★★★ LOCK
@

MLB Giants F5 First 5 Innings

SF Giants @ LAD Dodgers · Bot 6th · Trevor McDonald vs Roki Sasaki
WHY
- FIP edge +4.45 — your starter projects better
- SP career vs opp team +0.23 R
WIN % 55.8%±3.6%

EV +2.3%

STAKE 0.3u

-120
02 ★★★★★ LOCK
@

NBA Lakers +12.5 Spread

OKC Thunder @ LAL Lakers · Halftime · Net +9.5 · Net +2.8
WHY
- Top-10 offense (117.5 ORtg)
WIN % 48.8%±7.0%

EV +-6.9%

STAKE 0.0u

-110
03 ★★★★★ LOCK
@

MLB Yankees ML Moneyline

NYY Yankees @ BAL Orioles · Final · Ryan Weathers vs Brandon Young
WHY
- FIP edge +1.79 — your starter projects better
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.53 R
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.43 R
WIN % 63.6%±6.2%

EV +-17.7%

STAKE 0.0u

-149
04 ★★★★★ LOCK
@

MLB Guardians ML Moneyline

LAA Angels @ CLE Guardians · Final · Brent Suter vs Joey Cantillo
WHY
- Defense (OAA) +0.32 R
- SP career vs opp team +0.23 R
- Catcher framing +0.23 R
WIN % 65.0%±2.8%

EV +-20.3%

STAKE 0.0u

-175

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

Showing 5 of 5

05 ★★★☆☆
@

MLB Rays ML Moneyline

TB Rays @ TOR Blue Jays · Final · Drew Rasmussen vs Kevin Gausman
WHY
- Catcher framing +0.52 R
- Recent form 9-1 (last 10)
- SP career vs opp team +0.32 R
WIN % 54.9%±4.8%

EV +-16.1%

STAKE 0.0u

-120
06 ★★☆☆☆
@

MLB Diamondbacks ML Moneyline

ARI Diamondbacks @ TEX Rangers · Final · Michael Soroka vs Jakob Junis
WHY
- FIP edge +2.15 — your starter projects better
- Defense (OAA) +0.32 R
- Catcher framing +0.26 R
WIN % 52.4%±1.5%

EV +-21.7%

STAKE 0.0u

-115
07 ★★★★☆
@

MLB Mariners ML Moneyline

SEA Mariners @ HOU Astros · Final · George Kirby vs Peter Lambert
WHY
- SP career vs opp team +1.54 R
WIN % 60.4%±1.1%

EV +-23.1%

STAKE 0.0u

-156
08 ★★★★☆

@

NHL Avalanche ML Moneyline

COL Colorado Avalanche @ MIN Minnesota Wild · Final · 3.68/2.48 · 3.32/2.93

WIN % 57.9%±0.5%

EV +-23.2%

STAKE 0.0u

-155
09 ★★★★☆
@

NBA Cavaliers ML Moneyline

DET Pistons @ CLE Cavaliers · Final · Net +9.6 · Net +5.4
WHY
- Top-10 offense (120.7 ORtg)
WIN % 58.5%±1.9%

EV +-24.3%

STAKE 0.0u

-166

Season Snapshot

By the / Numbers

Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.

Today's Card

18 MLB · 4 NBA

Season Record

143-120-5

54.4% win rate since 2026-04-22

Lock Pick Win %

34-15

69.4% on locks (49 graded)

Last 10

4-6

last 10 graded

Streak

current run

Confidence Avg

69%

model blend

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model

— 01

Pitching & Matchups

MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.

— 02

Market Read

We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.

— 03

Pace & Environment

MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).

— 04

Fatigue & Availability

MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.

Today's/Picks

THE LOCKS

THE CARD

Today's Card

By the / Numbers

Leader/board

How We / Pick

MLB Picks by Type

By Team — AL East / Central

By Team — AL West / NL East

By Team — NL Central / West

About + Methodology