MLB, NBA, NHL Picks & Analysis Today, May 12, 2026: 62 Free Sabermetric Model Predictions

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

7 plays · best → worst

01 ★★★★★ LOCK
@

MLB Mariners F5 First 5 Innings

SEA Mariners @ HOU Astros · Final · Bryan Woo vs Tatsuya Imai
WHY
- FIP edge +5.69 — your starter projects better
- SP career vs opp team +0.44 R
WIN % 60.3%±1.6%

EV +10.5%

STAKE 1.6u

-120
02 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Pirates F5 First 5 Innings

COL Rockies @ PIT Pirates · Final · Michael Lorenzen vs Paul Skenes
WHY
- FIP edge +0.82 — your starter projects better
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.53 R
- Recent form 7-3 (last 10)
WIN % 58.5%±1.7%

EV +7.2%

STAKE 1.1u

-120
03 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Dodgers F5 First 5 Innings

SF Giants @ LAD Dodgers · Top 7th · Adrian Houser vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto
WHY
- SP career vs opp team +1.14 R
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +1.12 R
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.88 R
WIN % 52.5%±3.5%

EV +-3.8%

STAKE 0.0u

-120
04 ★★★★★ LOCK
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NBA Timberwolves +10.5 Spread

MIN Timberwolves @ SAS Spurs · Final · Net +1.4 · Net +0.0
WHY
- Top-10 offense (119.2 ORtg)
WIN % 46.8%±5.0%

EV +-10.7%

STAKE 0.0u

-110
05 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Yankees ML Moneyline

NYY Yankees @ BAL Orioles · Final · Will Warren vs Trevor Rogers
WHY
- FIP edge +1.69 — your starter projects better
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.92 R
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.55 R
WIN % 64.4%±8.0%

EV +-15.2%

STAKE 0.0u

-144
06 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Mets ML Moneyline

DET Tigers @ NYM Mets · Final · Jack Flaherty vs Freddy Peralta
WHY
- FIP edge +2.19 — your starter projects better
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.70 R
- SP career vs opp team +0.35 R
WIN % 63.2%±5.8%

EV +-16.1%

STAKE 0.0u

-143
07 ★★★★★ LOCK

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NHL Knights ML Moneyline

ANA Anaheim Ducks @ VGK Vegas Golden Knights · In Progress · 3.33/3.51 · 3.23/3.05

WIN % 62.8%±5.0%

EV +-17.5%

STAKE 0.0u

-162

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

Showing 11 of 11

08 ★★★☆☆
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MLB White Sox F5 First 5 Innings

KC Royals @ CHW White Sox · Final · Stephen Kolek vs Erick Fedde
WHY
- FIP edge +2.69 — your starter projects better
WIN % 54.6%±1.2%

EV +0.1%

STAKE 0.0u

-120
09 ★★★★☆
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MLB Padres F5 First 5 Innings

SD Padres @ MIL Brewers · Final · Bradgley Rodriguez vs Brandon Sproat
WHY
- FIP edge +0.89 — your starter projects better
- Bullpen quality edge +0.27 R
WIN % 54.2%±5.4%

EV +-0.7%

STAKE 0.0u

-120
10 ★★★★☆
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MLB Rays ML Moneyline

TB Rays @ TOR Blue Jays · Final/10 · Shane McClanahan vs Patrick Corbin
WHY
- SP career vs opp team +1.95 R
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.68 R
- Recent form 9-1 (last 10)
WIN % 61.2%±9.6%

EV +-13.0%

STAKE 0.0u

-118
11 ★★★★☆
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MLB Phillies ML Moneyline

PHI Phillies @ BOS Red Sox · Final · Zack Wheeler vs Jovani Moran
WHY
- FIP edge +2.23 — your starter projects better
- Bullpen quality edge +0.53 R
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.31 R
WIN % 61.8%±6.1%

EV +-17.4%

STAKE 0.0u

-136
12 ★★★★☆
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MLB Rangers ML Moneyline

ARI Diamondbacks @ TEX Rangers · Final · Zac Gallen vs MacKenzie Gore
WHY
- FIP edge +0.87 — your starter projects better
- Bullpen quality edge +0.23 R
WIN % 58.6%±2.2%

EV +-20.2%

STAKE 0.0u

-132
13 ★★★★☆
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MLB Guardians ML Moneyline

LAA Angels @ CLE Guardians · Final · Walbert Urena vs Slade Cecconi
WHY
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.40 R
- Bullpen quality edge +0.16 R
- Defense (OAA) +0.30 R
WIN % 59.8%±4.3%

EV +-20.4%

STAKE 0.0u

-136
14 ★★★☆☆
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MLB Marlins ML Moneyline

MIA Marlins @ MIN Twins · Final · Eury Perez vs Bailey Ober
WHY
- SP career vs opp team +1.10 R
- Bullpen quality edge +0.25 R
WIN % 54.6%±1.5%

EV +-21.3%

STAKE 0.0u

-115
15 ★★★☆☆

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NHL Canadiens ML Moneyline

BUF Buffalo Sabres @ MTL Montréal Canadiens · Final · 3.51/2.94 · 3.45/3.12

WIN % 55.9%±1.7%

EV +-24.5%

STAKE 0.0u

-148
16 ★★★★☆
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MLB Athletics ML Moneyline

STL Cardinals @ ATH Athletics · Top 8th · Andre Pallante vs Jeffrey Springs
WHY
- Bullpen quality edge +0.35 R
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.31 R
WIN % 57.0%±4.7%

EV +-27.3%

STAKE 0.0u

-156
17 ★★★☆☆
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MLB Reds ML Moneyline

WSH Nationals @ CIN Reds · Final · Miles Mikolas vs Brady Singer
WHY
- Defense (OAA) +0.38 R
WIN % 56.2%±3.8%

EV +-27.8%

STAKE 0.0u

-149
18 ★★☆☆☆
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MLB Cubs ML Moneyline

CHC Cubs @ ATL Braves · Final · Colin Rea vs Grant Holmes
WHY
- Bullpen quality edge +0.28 R
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.56 R
- Catcher framing +0.12 R
WIN % 51.0%±5.0%

EV +-28.7%

STAKE 0.0u

-122

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model

— 01

Pitching & Matchups

MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.

— 02

Market Read

We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.

— 03

Pace & Environment

MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).

— 04

Fatigue & Availability

MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.

Today's/Picks & Analysis

THE LOCKS

THE CARD

Today's Card

By the / Numbers

Leader/board

How We / Pick

MLB Picks by Type

By Team — AL East / Central

By Team — AL West / NL East

By Team — NL Central / West

About + Methodology