Free MLB & NBA Picks by MarcDuck, 31 AI-Assisted Predictions for Thursday, May 21, 2026

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

5 plays · best → worst

01 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Braves ML Moneyline

ATL Braves @ MIA Marlins · 3:40 PM PDT · Spencer Strider vs Sandy Alcantara
WHY
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +1.20 R
- FIP edge +1.01 — your starter projects better
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.54 R
WIN % 72.7%±9.7%

EV +23.5%

STAKE 1.3u

-143
02 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Mets ML Moneyline

NYM Mets @ WSH Nationals · 1:05 PM PDT · David Peterson vs Cade Cavalli
WHY
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.74 R
- Bullpen quality edge +0.36 R
- SP career vs opp team +0.59 R
WIN % 65.6%±8.6%

EV +22.6%

STAKE 0.9u

-115
03 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Athletics ML Moneyline

ATH Athletics @ LAA Angels · 6:38 PM PDT · Luis Severino vs Jose Soriano
WHY
- SP career vs opp team +0.61 R
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.61 R
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.23 R
WIN % 63.0%±8.0%

EV +20.2%

STAKE 0.7u

-110
04 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Pirates ML Moneyline

PIT Pirates @ STL Cardinals · 10:15 AM PDT · Braxton Ashcraft vs Dustin May
WHY
- FIP edge +1.10 — your starter projects better
- Bullpen quality edge +0.39 R
- SP career vs opp team +0.51 R
WIN % 63.5%±5.5%

EV +13.9%

STAKE 0.6u

-126
05 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Yankees ML Moneyline

TOR Blue Jays @ NYY Yankees · 4:05 PM PDT · Braydon Fisher vs Carlos Rodon
WHY
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.68 R
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.56 R
- Catcher framing +0.27 R
WIN % 68.1%±3.2%

EV +7.0%

STAKE 0.4u

-175

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

Showing 6 of 6

06 ★★★★☆ LOCK
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MLB Guardians ML Moneyline

CLE Guardians @ DET Tigers · 10:10 AM PDT · Joey Cantillo vs Casey Mize
WHY
- Recent form 8-2 (last 10)
- Defense (OAA) +0.56 R
- Catcher framing +0.13 R
WIN % 57.8%±5.3%

EV +13.9%

STAKE 0.4u

-117
07 ★★★★☆
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MLB Tigers F5 First 5 Innings

CLE Guardians @ DET Tigers · 10:10 AM PDT · Joey Cantillo vs Casey Mize
WHY
- Our SP hot streak (last 3 starts) +0.41 R
WIN % 55.7%±5.3%

EV +2.2%

STAKE 0.3u

-120
08 ★★★★☆
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MLB Diamondbacks ML Moneyline

COL Rockies @ ARI Diamondbacks · 6:40 PM PDT · Zach Agnos vs Eduardo Rodriguez
WHY
- Recent form 7-3 (last 10)
- Catcher framing +0.38 R
- Our SP hot streak (last 3 starts) +0.23 R
WIN % 66.4%±2.6%

EV +-0.2%

STAKE 0.0u

-199
09 ★★★★☆
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MLB Diamondbacks F5 First 5 Innings

COL Rockies @ ARI Diamondbacks · 6:40 PM PDT · Zach Agnos vs Eduardo Rodriguez
WHY
- Recent form 7-3 (last 10)
- Catcher framing +0.38 R
- Our SP hot streak (last 3 starts) +0.23 R
WIN % 54.1%±2.6%

EV +-0.9%

STAKE 0.0u

-120
10 ★★★☆☆
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MLB F5 Under 5.5 F5 Total

COL Rockies @ ARI Diamondbacks · 6:40 PM PDT · Zach Agnos vs Eduardo Rodriguez
WHY
- Recent form 7-3 (last 10)
- Catcher framing +0.38 R
- Our SP hot streak (last 3 starts) +0.23 R
WIN % 50.5%±2.6%

EV +-3.5%

STAKE 0.0u

-110
11 ★★★☆☆
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MLB Colorado Rockies +1.5 Run Line

COL Rockies @ ARI Diamondbacks · 6:40 PM PDT · Zach Agnos vs Eduardo Rodriguez
WHY
- Bullpen quality edge +0.20 R
- SP career vs opp team +0.33 R
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.29 R
WIN % 54.3%±2.6%

EV +-7.2%

STAKE 0.0u

-141

THE PARLAYS

Best two-leg and three-leg parlays auto-built from today's highest-EV plays. Legs are de-duplicated by game so no correlated picks. Combined odds and win probability assume leg independence.

4 parlays · 2 two-leg + 2 three-leg

01 2-LEG PARLAY +218

MLB
ATL ML ATL @ MIA
-143 72.7%

MLB
NYM ML NYM @ WSH
-115 65.6%

Combined Win % 47.7%

EV +51.5%

Payout (per $10) $31.77
02 2-LEG PARLAY +224

MLB
ATL ML ATL @ MIA
-143 72.7%

MLB
ATH ML ATH @ LAA
-110 63.0%

Combined Win % 45.8%

EV +48.6%

Payout (per $10) $32.44
03 3-LEG PARLAY +507

MLB
ATL ML ATL @ MIA
-143 72.7%

MLB
NYM ML NYM @ WSH
-115 65.6%

MLB
ATH ML ATH @ LAA
-110 63.0%

Combined Win % 30.0%

EV +82.2%

Payout (per $10) $60.65
04 3-LEG PARLAY +470

MLB
ATL ML ATL @ MIA
-143 72.7%

MLB
NYM ML NYM @ WSH
-115 65.6%

MLB
PIT ML PIT @ STL
-126 63.5%

Combined Win % 30.3%

EV +72.6%

Payout (per $10) $56.98

Season Snapshot

By the / Numbers

Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.

Today's Card

29 MLB · 2 NBA

Season Record

240-200-6

54.5% win rate since 2026-04-22

Lock Pick Win %

35-16

68.6% on locks (51 graded)

Last 10

7-3

last 10 graded

Streak

hot card

Confidence Avg

78%

model blend

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model

— 01

Pitching & Matchups

MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.

— 02

Market Read

We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.

— 03

Pace & Environment

MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).

— 04

Fatigue & Availability

MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.

Today's/Picks

THE LOCKS

THE CARD

THE PARLAYS

Today's Card

By the / Numbers

Leader/board

How We / Pick

MLB Picks by Type

By Team — AL East / Central

By Team — AL West / NL East

By Team — NL Central / West

About + Methodology