Bookie Bullies
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Heads-up Picks made by MarcDuck with AI assistance, weighing up to 35 factors per game. Predictions are not 100% correct. This is NOT financial advice. 21+ entertainment only. Full disclaimer.
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By MarcDuck · Curated with AI assistance, the human formulates every pick
MON · APR 20 · 2026 Week 4 · Regular Season
First Pitch 9:15 AM PDT
Stake Calculator 1u = 1% of bankroll · 1/8-Kelly recommendations
$ bankroll
1u = $10

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

1 play · best → worst
  1. 01 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Braves F5 First 5 Innings
    ATL Braves @ CIN Reds · 10:40 AM PDT · Spencer Strider vs Nick Lodolo
    WHY
    • FIP edge +2.11 — your starter projects better
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +1.24 R
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.55 R
    WIN % 62.6%±5.8%
    EV +14.8%
    STAKE 2.2u
    -120

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

Showing 26 of 26
Filter by Sport
Market
Model Confidence
  1. 02 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB F5 Over 5.5 F5 Total
    CHC Cubs @ STL Cardinals · 4:20 PM PDT · Jordan Wicks vs Matthew Liberatore
    WHY
    • FIP edge +11.09 — your starter projects better
    • SP career vs opp team +0.28 R
    • Catcher framing +0.20 R
    WIN % 69.2%±3.9%
    EV +32.1%
    STAKE 4.4u
    -110
  2. 03 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Mariners F5 First 5 Innings
    ARI Diamondbacks @ SEA Mariners · 1:10 PM PDT · Merrill Kelly vs Bryce Miller
    WHY
    • FIP edge +9.50 — your starter projects better
    WIN % 69.2%±1.0%
    EV +26.9%
    STAKE 4.0u
    -120
  3. 04 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Cardinals F5 First 5 Innings
    CHC Cubs @ STL Cardinals · 4:20 PM PDT · Jordan Wicks vs Matthew Liberatore
    WHY
    • FIP edge +11.09 — your starter projects better
    • SP career vs opp team +0.28 R
    • Catcher framing +0.20 R
    WIN % 69.2%±3.9%
    EV +26.9%
    STAKE 4.0u
    -120
  4. 05 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB F5 Over 5.5 F5 Total
    SD Padres @ WSH Nationals · 10:35 AM PDT · Griffin Canning vs Zack Littell
    WHY
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.67 R
    • FIP edge +0.83 — your starter projects better
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.48 R
    WIN % 62.3%
    EV +19.0%
    STAKE 2.6u
    -110
  5. 06 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Brewers F5 First 5 Innings
    MIL Brewers @ HOU Astros · 11:10 AM PDT · Jacob Misiorowski vs Tatsuya Imai
    WHY
    • FIP edge +3.42 — your starter projects better
    • Our SP hot streak (last 3 starts) +0.41 R
    • Catcher framing +0.19 R
    WIN % 62.4%±1.2%
    EV +14.4%
    STAKE 2.2u
    -120
  6. 07 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB F5 Under 3.5 F5 Total
    MIA Marlins @ NYM Mets · 10:40 AM PDT · Janson Junk vs Nolan McLean
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.58 — your starter projects better
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.72 R
    • Catcher framing +0.32 R
    WIN % 57.6%±2.6%
    EV +9.9%
    STAKE 1.4u
    -110
  7. 08 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Cardinals ML Moneyline
    CHC Cubs @ STL Cardinals · 4:20 PM PDT · Jordan Wicks vs Matthew Liberatore
    WHY
    • FIP edge +11.09 — your starter projects better
    • SP career vs opp team +0.28 R
    • Catcher framing +0.20 R
    WIN % 56.8%±3.9%
    EV +10.9%
    STAKE 0.4u
    -115
  8. 09 ★★★☆☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Over 10.5 Total
    CHC Cubs @ STL Cardinals · 4:20 PM PDT · Jordan Wicks vs Matthew Liberatore
    WHY
    • FIP edge +11.09 — your starter projects better
    • SP career vs opp team +0.28 R
    • Catcher framing +0.20 R
    WIN % 57.4%±3.9%
    EV +9.6%
    STAKE 1.3u
    -110
  9. 10 ★★★☆☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Over 8.5 Total
    ARI Diamondbacks @ SEA Mariners · 1:10 PM PDT · Merrill Kelly vs Bryce Miller
    WHY
    • FIP edge +9.50 — your starter projects better
    WIN % 56.2%±1.0%
    EV +7.2%
    STAKE 1.0u
    -110
  10. 11 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB F5 Over 5.5 F5 Total
    ARI Diamondbacks @ SEA Mariners · 1:10 PM PDT · Merrill Kelly vs Bryce Miller
    WHY
    • FIP edge +9.50 — your starter projects better
    WIN % 54.4%±1.0%
    EV +3.8%
    STAKE 0.5u
    -110
  11. 12 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Rays F5 First 5 Innings
    LAA Angels @ TB Rays · 10:40 AM PDT · Jack Kochanowicz vs Shane McClanahan
    WHY
    • Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.65 R
    • Catcher framing +0.67 R
    • FIP edge +0.52 — your starter projects better
    WIN % 56.0%±2.3%
    EV +2.6%
    STAKE 0.4u
    -120
  12. 13 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Over 8.5 Total
    MIL Brewers @ HOU Astros · 11:10 AM PDT · Jacob Misiorowski vs Tatsuya Imai
    WHY
    • FIP edge +3.42 — your starter projects better
    • Our SP hot streak (last 3 starts) +0.41 R
    • Catcher framing +0.19 R
    WIN % 54.0%±1.2%
    EV +3.1%
    STAKE 0.4u
    -110
  13. 14 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Rays ML Moneyline
    LAA Angels @ TB Rays · 10:40 AM PDT · Jack Kochanowicz vs Shane McClanahan
    WHY
    • Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.65 R
    • Catcher framing +0.67 R
    • FIP edge +0.52 — your starter projects better
    WIN % 66.3%±2.3%
    EV +0.5%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -194
  14. 15 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Mets F5 First 5 Innings
    MIA Marlins @ NYM Mets · 10:40 AM PDT · Janson Junk vs Nolan McLean
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.58 — your starter projects better
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.72 R
    • Catcher framing +0.32 R
    WIN % 54.2%±2.6%
    EV +-0.7%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -120
  15. 16 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Royals F5 First 5 Innings
    KC Royals @ TEX Rangers · 11:35 AM PDT · Michael Wacha vs Jack Leiter
    WHY
    • SP career vs opp team +0.93 R
    • Defense (OAA) +0.38 R
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.21 R
    WIN % 54.1%±2.4%
    EV +-0.8%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -120
  16. 17 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Padres ML Moneyline
    SD Padres @ WSH Nationals · 10:35 AM PDT · Griffin Canning vs Zack Littell
    WHY
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.67 R
    • FIP edge +0.83 — your starter projects better
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.48 R
    WIN % 57.0%
    EV +-1.1%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -136
  17. 18 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB White Sox ML Moneyline
    DET Tigers @ CHW White Sox · 11:10 AM PDT · Keider Montero vs Sean Burke
    WHY
    • Defense (OAA) +0.54 R
    • SP career vs opp team +0.42 R
    • Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.42 R
    WIN % 56.0%±0.6%
    EV +-1.2%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -131
  18. 19 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Mariners ML Moneyline
    ARI Diamondbacks @ SEA Mariners · 1:10 PM PDT · Merrill Kelly vs Bryce Miller
    WHY
    • FIP edge +9.50 — your starter projects better
    WIN % 59.5%±1.0%
    EV +-2.3%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -156
  19. 20 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Brewers ML Moneyline
    MIL Brewers @ HOU Astros · 11:10 AM PDT · Jacob Misiorowski vs Tatsuya Imai
    WHY
    • FIP edge +3.42 — your starter projects better
    • Our SP hot streak (last 3 starts) +0.41 R
    • Catcher framing +0.19 R
    WIN % 62.7%±1.2%
    EV +-2.6%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -181
  20. 21 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Rangers ML Moneyline
    KC Royals @ TEX Rangers · 11:35 AM PDT · Michael Wacha vs Jack Leiter
    WHY
    • FIP edge +0.54 — your starter projects better
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.24 R
    • Recent form 4-6 (last 10)
    WIN % 52.1%±2.4%
    EV +-2.6%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -115
  21. 22 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Mets ML Moneyline
    MIA Marlins @ NYM Mets · 10:40 AM PDT · Janson Junk vs Nolan McLean
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.58 — your starter projects better
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.72 R
    • Catcher framing +0.32 R
    WIN % 60.5%±2.6%
    EV +-3.4%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -168
  22. 23 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Tigers +1.5 Run Line
    DET Tigers @ CHW White Sox · 11:10 AM PDT · Keider Montero vs Sean Burke
    WHY
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.88 R
    • Catcher framing +0.22 R
    WIN % 61.7%±0.6%
    EV +-3.9%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180
  23. 24 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Over 8.5 Total
    LAA Angels @ TB Rays · 10:40 AM PDT · Jack Kochanowicz vs Shane McClanahan
    WHY
    • Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.65 R
    • Catcher framing +0.67 R
    • FIP edge +0.52 — your starter projects better
    WIN % 50.0%±2.3%
    EV +-4.5%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -110
  24. 25 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Nationals +1.5 Run Line
    SD Padres @ WSH Nationals · 10:35 AM PDT · Griffin Canning vs Zack Littell
    WHY
    • Our SP hot streak (last 3 starts) +0.60 R
    • SP career vs opp team +0.41 R
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.40 R
    WIN % 61.2%
    EV +-4.8%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180
  25. 26 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Marlins +1.5 Run Line
    MIA Marlins @ NYM Mets · 10:40 AM PDT · Janson Junk vs Nolan McLean
    WHY
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.61 R
    WIN % 60.8%±2.6%
    EV +-5.4%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180
  26. 27 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Diamondbacks +1.5 Run Line
    ARI Diamondbacks @ SEA Mariners · 1:10 PM PDT · Merrill Kelly vs Bryce Miller
    WHY
    • Our SP hot streak (last 3 starts) +0.60 R
    • SP career vs opp team +0.37 R
    • Defense (OAA) +0.40 R
    WIN % 60.8%±1.0%
    EV +-5.5%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -180

THE PARLAYS

Best two-leg and three-leg parlays auto-built from today's highest-EV plays. Legs are de-duplicated by game so no correlated picks. Combined odds and win probability assume leg independence.

4 parlays · 2 two-leg + 2 three-leg
  1. 01 2-LEG PARLAY +339
    MLB
    F5 Over 5.5 CHC @ STL
    -110 69.2%
    MLB
    NYY RL NYY @ ATH
    +130 58.6%
    Combined Win % 40.6%
    EV +78.1%
    Payout (per $10) $43.91
  2. 02 2-LEG PARLAY +322
    MLB
    SEA F5 ARI @ SEA
    -120 69.2%
    MLB
    NYY RL NYY @ ATH
    +130 58.6%
    Combined Win % 40.6%
    EV +71.0%
    Payout (per $10) $42.17
  3. 03 3-LEG PARLAY +705
    MLB
    F5 Over 5.5 CHC @ STL
    -110 69.2%
    MLB
    SEA F5 ARI @ SEA
    -120 69.2%
    MLB
    NYY RL NYY @ ATH
    +130 58.6%
    Combined Win % 28.1%
    EV +125.9%
    Payout (per $10) $80.50
  4. 04 3-LEG PARLAY +738
    MLB
    F5 Over 5.5 CHC @ STL
    -110 69.2%
    MLB
    NYY RL NYY @ ATH
    +130 58.6%
    MLB
    F5 Over 5.5 SD @ WSH
    -110 62.3%
    Combined Win % 25.3%
    EV +111.8%
    Payout (per $10) $83.83

Today's Card

Showing 13 of 13 · 0-0 today
Season Snapshot

By the / Numbers

Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.

Today's Card
57
57 MLB · 0 NBA
Season Record
302-255-10
54.2% win rate since 2026-04-22
Lock Pick Win %
37-18
67.3% on locks (55 graded)
Last 10
6-4
last 10 graded
Streak
W3
hot card
Confidence Avg
51%
model blend

Leader/board

Top 8 Cappers · Last 30 Days
#
Capper
W-L
Win%
Units
ROI
● Current Streak
W5
5 IN A ROW · +$623 ON L5
Win Loss Push

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model
— 01
Pitching & Matchups
MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.
— 02
Market Read
We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.
— 03
Pace & Environment
MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).
— 04
Fatigue & Availability
MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.

MLB Picks by Type

By Team — AL East / Central

By Team — AL West / NL East

By Team — NL Central / West

About + Methodology