Heads-up Picks made by MarcDuck with AI assistance, weighing up to 35 factors per game. Predictions are not 100% correct. This is NOT financial advice. 21+ entertainment only. Full disclaimer.

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Upcoming/Picks

By MarcDuck · Curated with AI assistance, the human formulates every pick

MON · APR 20 · 2026 Week 4 · Regular Season
First Pitch 11:20 AM PDT

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

0 plays · best → worst

No 5★ +EV locks on today's board. Check back at 8am for the morning refresh.

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

Showing 2 of 2

01 ★★★★☆ LOCK

@

NBA Over 214.5 Total

NYK Knicks @ SAS Spurs · 5:30 PM PDT · Net +0.0 · Net +0.0

WIN % 61.2%±1.5%

EV +16.9%

STAKE 2.3u

-110
02 ★★★★☆

@

NBA Knicks +6.5 Spread

NYK Knicks @ SAS Spurs · 5:30 PM PDT · Net +0.0 · Net +0.0

WIN % 52.7%±1.5%

EV +0.6%

STAKE 0.1u

-110

THE PARLAYS

Best two-leg and three-leg parlays auto-built from today's highest-EV plays. Legs are de-duplicated by game so no correlated picks. Combined odds and win probability assume leg independence.

4 parlays · 2 two-leg + 2 three-leg

01 2-LEG PARLAY +322

MLB
LAD RL LAA @ LAD
+130 60.4%

MLB
WSH F5 WSH @ ARI
-120 69.2%

Combined Win % 41.8%

EV +76.2%

Payout (per $10) $42.17
02 2-LEG PARLAY +322

MLB
LAD RL LAA @ LAD
+130 60.4%

MLB
PHI F5 CHW @ PHI
-120 67.6%

Combined Win % 40.8%

EV +72.2%

Payout (per $10) $42.17
03 3-LEG PARLAY +673

MLB
LAD RL LAA @ LAD
+130 60.4%

MLB
WSH F5 WSH @ ARI
-120 69.2%

MLB
PHI F5 CHW @ PHI
-120 67.6%

Combined Win % 28.3%

EV +118.4%

Payout (per $10) $77.31
04 3-LEG PARLAY +870

MLB
LAD RL LAA @ LAD
+130 60.4%

MLB
WSH F5 WSH @ ARI
-120 69.2%

MLB
ATL RL PIT @ ATL
+130 53.1%

Combined Win % 22.2%

EV +115.2%

Payout (per $10) $96.98

Season Snapshot

By the / Numbers

Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.

Today's Card

56 MLB · 3 NBA

Season Record

342-285-10

54.5% win rate since 2026-04-22

Lock Pick Win %

37-19

66.1% on locks (56 graded)

Last 10

6-4

last 10 graded

Streak

hot card

Confidence Avg

23%

model blend

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model

— 01

Pitching & Matchups

MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.

— 02

Market Read

We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.

— 03

Pace & Environment

MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).

— 04

Fatigue & Availability

MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.

Upcoming/Picks

THE LOCKS

THE CARD

THE PARLAYS

Today's Card

By the / Numbers

Leader/board

How We / Pick

MLB Picks by Type

By Team — AL East / Central

By Team — AL West / NL East

By Team — NL Central / West

About + Methodology