Bookie Bullies
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Heads-up Picks made by MarcDuck with AI assistance, weighing up to 35 factors per game. Predictions are not 100% correct. This is NOT financial advice. 21+ entertainment only. Full disclaimer.
Today's Card · Locked In

Today's/Picks

By MarcDuck · Curated with AI assistance, the human formulates every pick
MON · APR 20 · 2026 Week 4 · Regular Season
First Pitch 11:10 AM PDT
Stake Calculator 1u = 1% of bankroll · 1/8-Kelly recommendations
$ bankroll
1u = $10

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

14 plays · best → worst
  1. 01 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Rangers ML Moneyline
    TEX Rangers @ BOS Red Sox · 1:10 PM PDT · Jacob deGrom vs Ranger Suarez
    WHY
    • Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +1.20 R
    • FIP edge +0.52 — your starter projects better
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.22 R
    WIN % 63.0%±9.2%
    EV +25.4%
    STAKE 0.9u
    -120
  2. 02 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Mariners ML Moneyline
    SEA Mariners @ WSH Nationals · 1:05 PM PDT · Luis Castillo vs Cade Cavalli
    WHY
    • Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.62 R
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.21 R
    • Catcher framing +0.37 R
    WIN % 62.5%±7.4%
    EV +20.3%
    STAKE 0.8u
    -112
  3. 03 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Astros F5 First 5 Innings
    HOU Astros @ KC Royals · 4:10 PM PDT · Mike Burrows vs Noah Cameron
    WHY
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.62 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.56 R
    • Catcher framing +0.34 R
    WIN % 63.8%±6.2%
    EV +17.0%
    STAKE 2.5u
    -120
  4. 04 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Marlins F5 First 5 Innings
    MIA Marlins @ PIT Pirates · 1:05 PM PDT · Lake Bachar vs Bubba Chandler
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.51 — your starter projects better
    • Recent form 9-1 (last 10)
    • Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.29 R
    WIN % 62.8%±5.8%
    EV +15.2%
    STAKE 2.3u
    -120
  5. 05 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Braves ML Moneyline
    ATL Braves @ NYM Mets · 1:10 PM PDT · Martin Perez vs Sean Manaea
    WHY
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.98 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.80 R
    • Defense (OAA) +0.28 R
    WIN % 60.4%±9.8%
    EV +17.9%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -115
  6. 06 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Cubs ML Moneyline
    CHC Cubs @ SF Giants · 7:05 PM PDT · Ben Brown vs Trevor McDonald
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.57 — your starter projects better
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +1.04 R
    • SP career vs opp team +0.51 R
    WIN % 64.7%±6.3%
    EV +16.1%
    STAKE 0.8u
    -126
  7. 07 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Rays ML Moneyline
    TB Rays @ LAA Angels · 7:07 PM PDT · Griffin Jax vs Jose Soriano
    WHY
    • Catcher framing +0.67 R
    • Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.50 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.40 R
    WIN % 61.0%±6.0%
    EV +16.4%
    STAKE 0.7u
    -110
  8. 08 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Twins F5 First 5 Innings
    STL Cardinals @ MIN Twins · 11:10 AM PDT · Matthew Liberatore vs Connor Prielipp
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.32 — your starter projects better
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.22 R
    • SP career vs opp team +0.28 R
    WIN % 61.6%±5.3%
    EV +13.0%
    STAKE 2.0u
    -120
  9. 09 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Yankees ML Moneyline
    NYY Yankees @ TOR Blue Jays · 12:07 PM PDT · Cam Schlittler vs Kevin Gausman
    WHY
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.68 R
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.40 R
    • Catcher framing +0.27 R
    WIN % 63.6%±8.1%
    EV +14.5%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -125
  10. 10 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Orioles ML Moneyline
    SD Padres @ BAL Orioles · 1:05 PM PDT · Randy Vasquez vs Trey Gibson
    WHY
    • Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.60 R
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.34 R
    • Recent form 5-5 (last 10)
    WIN % 63.4%±4.7%
    EV +11.8%
    STAKE 0.6u
    -131
  11. 11 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Dodgers ML Moneyline
    LAD Dodgers @ CHW White Sox · 1:10 PM PDT · Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Sean Burke
    WHY
    • Lineup-vs-hand edge +1.68 R
    • Catcher framing +0.85 R
    • Hot bat (last 14d) +0.58 R
    WIN % 75.4%±8.8%
    EV +11.8%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -207
  12. 12 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Brewers F5 First 5 Innings
    PHI Phillies @ MIL Brewers · 4:10 PM PDT · Aaron Nola vs Shane Drohan
    WIN % 59.2%±1.5%
    EV +8.6%
    STAKE 1.3u
    -120
  13. 13 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Diamondbacks ML Moneyline
    ARI Diamondbacks @ CIN Reds · 1:10 PM PDT · Michael Soroka vs Rhett Lowder
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.38 — your starter projects better
    • Bullpen quality edge +0.21 R
    • Catcher framing +0.28 R
    WIN % 62.6%±4.5%
    EV +8.2%
    STAKE 0.1u
    -137
  14. 14 ★★★★★ LOCK
    @
    MLB Tigers ML Moneyline
    DET Tigers @ CLE Guardians · 1:10 PM PDT · Tarik Skubal vs Joey Cantillo
    WHY
    • FIP edge +1.42 — your starter projects better
    • SP career vs opp team +0.42 R
    • Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.41 R
    WIN % 63.5%±3.1%
    EV +4.0%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -157

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

Showing 6 of 6
Filter by Sport
Market
Model Confidence
  1. 15 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Athletics F5 First 5 Innings
    COL Rockies @ ATH Athletics · 7:05 PM PDT · Kyle Freeland vs Joey Estes
    WHY
    • FIP edge +2.61 — your starter projects better
    WIN % 63.8%
    EV +17.0%
    STAKE 2.5u
    -120
  2. 16 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    NBA Over 216.5 Total
    NYK Knicks @ SAS Spurs · 5:30 PM PDT · Net +0.0 · Net +0.0
    WIN % 59.6%±1.8%
    EV +13.7%
    STAKE 1.9u
    -110
  3. 17 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB F5 Over 5.5 F5 Total
    COL Rockies @ ATH Athletics · 7:05 PM PDT · Kyle Freeland vs Joey Estes
    WHY
    • FIP edge +2.61 — your starter projects better
    WIN % 59.5%
    EV +13.5%
    STAKE 1.9u
    -110
  4. 18 ★★★★☆ LOCK
    @
    MLB Under 10.5 Total
    COL Rockies @ ATH Athletics · 7:05 PM PDT · Kyle Freeland vs Joey Estes
    WHY
    • FIP edge +2.61 — your starter projects better
    WIN % 55.3%
    EV +5.6%
    STAKE 0.8u
    -110
  5. 19 ★★★★☆
    @
    NBA Knicks +5.5 Spread
    NYK Knicks @ SAS Spurs · 5:30 PM PDT · Net +0.0 · Net +0.0
    WIN % 53.3%±1.8%
    EV +1.8%
    STAKE 0.3u
    -110
  6. 20 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Athletics ML Moneyline
    COL Rockies @ ATH Athletics · 7:05 PM PDT · Kyle Freeland vs Joey Estes
    WHY
    • FIP edge +2.61 — your starter projects better
    WIN % 63.5%
    EV +-0.2%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -175

THE PARLAYS

Best two-leg and three-leg parlays auto-built from today's highest-EV plays. Legs are de-duplicated by game so no correlated picks. Combined odds and win probability assume leg independence.

4 parlays · 2 two-leg + 2 three-leg
  1. 01 2-LEG PARLAY +247
    MLB
    SEA ML SEA @ WSH
    -112 62.5%
    MLB
    HOU F5 HOU @ KC
    -120 63.8%
    Combined Win % 39.9%
    EV +38.4%
    Payout (per $10) $34.70
  2. 02 2-LEG PARLAY +247
    MLB
    SEA ML SEA @ WSH
    -112 62.5%
    MLB
    ATH F5 COL @ ATH
    -120 63.8%
    Combined Win % 39.9%
    EV +38.4%
    Payout (per $10) $34.70
  3. 03 3-LEG PARLAY +536
    MLB
    SEA ML SEA @ WSH
    -112 62.5%
    MLB
    HOU F5 HOU @ KC
    -120 63.8%
    MLB
    ATH F5 COL @ ATH
    -120 63.8%
    Combined Win % 25.4%
    EV +61.9%
    Payout (per $10) $63.62
  4. 04 3-LEG PARLAY +563
    MLB
    SEA ML SEA @ WSH
    -112 62.5%
    MLB
    HOU F5 HOU @ KC
    -120 63.8%
    MLB
    TB ML TB @ LAA
    -110 61.0%
    Combined Win % 24.3%
    EV +61.1%
    Payout (per $10) $66.25

Today's Card

Showing 13 of 13 · 0-0 today
Season Snapshot

By the / Numbers

Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.

Today's Card
55
52 MLB · 3 NBA
Season Record
401-339-12
54.2% win rate since 2026-04-22
Lock Pick Win %
37-19
66.1% on locks (56 graded)
Last 10
5-5
last 10 graded
Streak
W2
current run
Confidence Avg
87%
model blend

Leader/board

Top 8 Cappers · Last 30 Days
#
Capper
W-L
Win%
Units
ROI
● Current Streak
W5
5 IN A ROW · +$623 ON L5
Win Loss Push

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model
— 01
Pitching & Matchups
MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.
— 02
Market Read
We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.
— 03
Pace & Environment
MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).
— 04
Fatigue & Availability
MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.

MLB Picks by Type

By Team — AL East / Central

By Team — AL West / NL East

By Team — NL Central / West

About + Methodology