Free MLB & NBA Picks by MarcDuck, 57 AI-Assisted Predictions for Wednesday, June 17, 2026

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

10 plays · best → worst

01 ★★★★★ LOCK
@

MLB Yankees F5 First 5 Innings

CHW White Sox @ NYY Yankees · 4:05 PM PDT · Anthony Kay vs Carlos Rodon
WHY
- FIP edge +4.45 — your starter projects better
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +2.12 R
- Bullpen quality edge +0.29 R
WIN % 68.8%±8.1%

EV +26.1%

STAKE 3.9u

-120
02 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Red Sox F5 First 5 Innings

TOR Blue Jays @ BOS Red Sox · 3:45 PM PDT · Max Scherzer vs Jake Bennett
WHY
- FIP edge +4.95 — your starter projects better
- Defense (OAA) +0.40 R
WIN % 68.7%±4.5%

EV +26.0%

STAKE 3.9u

-120
03 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB F5 Over 5.5 F5 Total

KC Royals @ WSH Nationals · 10:05 AM PDT · Luinder Avila vs Zack Littell
WHY
- Our SP hot streak (last 3 starts) +0.60 R
- SP career vs opp team +0.28 R
- Recent form 7-3 (last 10)
WIN % 61.3%±1.7%

EV +17.0%

STAKE 2.3u

-110
04 ★★★★★ LOCK
@

MLB Dodgers ML Moneyline

TB Rays @ LAD Dodgers · 12:10 PM PDT · Shane McClanahan vs Shohei Ohtani
WHY
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +1.08 R
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.64 R
- FIP edge +0.72 — your starter projects better
WIN % 76.2%±7.9%

EV +17.4%

STAKE 1.2u

-185
05 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Braves ML Moneyline

SF Giants @ ATL Braves · 4:15 PM PDT · Robbie Ray vs JR Ritchie
WHY
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +1.32 R
- Hot bat (last 14d) +1.00 R
WIN % 68.6%±7.1%

EV +16.6%

STAKE 0.8u

-143
06 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Brewers ML Moneyline

CLE Guardians @ MIL Brewers · 4:40 PM PDT · Gavin Williams vs Brandon Sproat
WHY
- SP career vs opp team +0.71 R
- Recent form 7-3 (last 10)
- Catcher framing +0.34 R
WIN % 64.6%±8.5%

EV +17.1%

STAKE 0.3u

-123
07 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Mets F5 First 5 Innings

NYM Mets @ CIN Reds · 9:40 AM PDT · Nolan McLean vs Nick Lodolo
WHY
- FIP edge +2.86 — your starter projects better
- Bullpen quality edge +0.42 R
- Our SP hot streak (last 3 starts) +0.48 R
WIN % 61.6%±5.8%

EV +12.9%

STAKE 1.9u

-120
08 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Pirates ML Moneyline

PIT Pirates @ ATH Athletics · 6:40 PM PDT · Braxton Ashcraft vs Aaron Civale
WHY
- FIP edge +0.91 — your starter projects better
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.60 R
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.20 R
WIN % 61.3%±4.8%

EV +12.4%

STAKE 0.5u

-120
09 ★★★★★ LOCK
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MLB Mariners F5 First 5 Innings

BAL Orioles @ SEA Mariners · 6:40 PM PDT · Kyle Bradish vs George Kirby
WHY
- SP career vs opp team +0.42 R
- Recent form 5-5 (last 10)
- Catcher framing +0.13 R
WIN % 58.9%±3.2%

EV +8.0%

STAKE 1.2u

-120
10 ★★★★★ LOCK
@

MLB Cubs ML Moneyline

COL Rockies @ CHC Cubs · 5:05 PM PDT · Sean Sullivan vs Javier Assad
WHY
- Our SP hot streak (last 3 starts) +0.60 R
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.47 R
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.52 R
WIN % 70.6%±3.3%

EV +7.1%

STAKE 0.5u

-193

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

Showing 9 of 9

11 ★★★★☆ LOCK
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MLB Angels F5 First 5 Innings

LAA Angels @ ARI Diamondbacks · 12:40 PM PDT · Sam Aldegheri vs Eduardo Rodriguez
WHY
- FIP edge +2.61 — your starter projects better
- Bullpen quality edge +0.23 R
- SP career vs opp team +0.32 R
WIN % 62.7%±0.5%

EV +15.0%

STAKE 2.2u

-120
12 ★★★★☆ LOCK
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MLB Padres ML Moneyline

SD Padres @ STL Cardinals · 11:15 AM PDT · TBD vs Kyle Leahy
WHY
- Bullpen quality edge +0.72 R
- FIP edge +0.82 — your starter projects better
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.23 R
WIN % 56.7%±4.5%

EV +12.8%

STAKE 0.5u

-120
13 ★★★☆☆ LOCK
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MLB Marlins F5 First 5 Innings

MIA Marlins @ PHI Phillies · 10:05 AM PDT · Sandy Alcantara vs Andrew Painter
WHY
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +1.02 R
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.20 R
- Defense (OAA) +0.22 R
WIN % 58.6%±3.0%

EV +7.4%

STAKE 1.1u

-120
14 ★★★★☆ LOCK

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MLB Tigers ML Moneyline

DET Tigers @ HOU Astros · 11:10 AM PDT · Casey Mize vs Peter Lambert

WIN % 55.4%±2.4%

EV +4.9%

STAKE 0.1u

-112
15 ★★★☆☆
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MLB Under 8.5 Total

LAA Angels @ ARI Diamondbacks · 12:40 PM PDT · Sam Aldegheri vs Eduardo Rodriguez
WHY
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.56 R
- Catcher framing +0.35 R
- Defense (OAA) +0.30 R
WIN % 54.2%±0.5%

EV +3.4%

STAKE 0.5u

-110
16 ★★★★☆
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MLB Diamondbacks ML Moneyline

LAA Angels @ ARI Diamondbacks · 12:40 PM PDT · Sam Aldegheri vs Eduardo Rodriguez
WHY
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.56 R
- Catcher framing +0.35 R
- Defense (OAA) +0.30 R
WIN % 63.8%±0.5%

EV +1.1%

STAKE 0.1u

-171
17 ★★★★☆
@

MLB Astros F5 First 5 Innings

DET Tigers @ HOU Astros · 11:10 AM PDT · Casey Mize vs Peter Lambert
WHY
- FIP edge +1.09 — your starter projects better
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.47 R
- Defense (OAA) +0.52 R
WIN % 54.7%±2.4%

EV +0.2%

STAKE 0.0u

-120
18 ★★★☆☆
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MLB Marlins ML Moneyline

MIA Marlins @ PHI Phillies · 10:05 AM PDT · Sandy Alcantara vs Andrew Painter
WHY
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +1.02 R
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.20 R
- Defense (OAA) +0.22 R
WIN % 52.0%±3.0%

EV +1.1%

STAKE 0.0u

-114
19 ★★★☆☆
@

MLB Astros +1.5 Run Line

DET Tigers @ HOU Astros · 11:10 AM PDT · Casey Mize vs Peter Lambert
WHY
- FIP edge +1.09 — your starter projects better
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.47 R
- Defense (OAA) +0.52 R
WIN % 61.5%±2.4%

EV +-4.3%

STAKE 0.0u

-180

THE PARLAYS

Best two-leg and three-leg parlays auto-built from today's highest-EV plays. Legs are de-duplicated by game so no correlated picks. Combined odds and win probability assume leg independence.

4 parlays · 2 two-leg + 2 three-leg

01 2-LEG PARLAY +236

MLB
NYY F5 CHW @ NYY
-120 68.8%

MLB
BOS F5 TOR @ BOS
-120 68.7%

Combined Win % 47.3%

EV +58.9%

Payout (per $10) $33.61
02 2-LEG PARLAY +182

MLB
NYY F5 CHW @ NYY
-120 68.8%

MLB
LAD ML TB @ LAD
-185 76.2%

Combined Win % 52.4%

EV +48.1%

Payout (per $10) $28.24
03 3-LEG PARLAY +418

MLB
NYY F5 CHW @ NYY
-120 68.8%

MLB
BOS F5 TOR @ BOS
-120 68.7%

MLB
LAD ML TB @ LAD
-185 76.2%

Combined Win % 36.0%

EV +86.5%

Payout (per $10) $51.78
04 3-LEG PARLAY +509

MLB
NYY F5 CHW @ NYY
-120 68.8%

MLB
BOS F5 TOR @ BOS
-120 68.7%

MLB
MIL ML CLE @ MIL
-123 64.6%

Combined Win % 30.5%

EV +86.1%

Payout (per $10) $60.94

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model

— 01

Pitching & Matchups

MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.

— 02

Market Read

We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.

— 03

Pace & Environment

MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).

— 04

Fatigue & Availability

MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.

Today's/Picks

THE LOCKS

THE CARD

THE PARLAYS

Today's Card

By the / Numbers

Leader/board

How We / Pick

MLB Picks by Type

By Team — AL East / Central

By Team — AL West / NL East

By Team — NL Central / West

About + Methodology